207
FXUS65 KPSR 222004
AFDPSR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Phoenix AZ
104 PM MST Wed Oct 22 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Today`s high temperatures will be in the lower 90s across the
  lower desert regions as cloud coverage will begin to lift after
  the passing of the most recent system.

- Starting Thursday, quiet weather conditions are expected through
  at least early next week with temperatures staying within a few
  degrees of the seasonal normal.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Early morning/afternoon showers have come and gone as current
water vapor imagery shows the cut-off low over southern California
and a swath of dry air being advected into the Desert SW region.
With that, moisture levels will be returning to near normal
conditions and additional activity is not expected. Cloud coverage
will lift, returning to mostly clear skies, with FEW passing high
clouds, by late this afternoon/evening through Thursday. High
temperatures today will be in the low 90s across the lower desert
areas, similar to yesterday, then Thursday the cut-off low will
be passing over Arizona and the Four Corners region dropping
temperature back into the lower 80s across the south-central
Arizona lower deserts to the mid 80s across southeast California.

Winds in southeast California will continue to be elevated today
through Thursday morning. A wind advisory remains in effect until
Thursday morning in the southwest corner of Imperial County,
where winds will be between 25-35 kts, with gusts upwards of 40
kts. By the morning hours these elevated wind will subside
returning back to calmer conditions.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A quieter weather pattern will settle across the region by Friday
likely lasting through at least the first half of next week.
Shortwave ridging will move in behind the exiting cut-off low on
Friday, lasting through around Sunday morning. Aside from the
return of clear skies, the ridge will also help to push
temperatures to a few degrees above normal Friday into Saturday.
Lower desert highs generally between 85-90 degrees are expected
for Friday and Saturday with the warmest temperatures across
southeast California.

The weekend will also see a large Pacific trough move into the
Northwestern U.S. This system will stay well to our north, but it
will eject the ridge from our region leaving zonal westerly flow
lasting into early next week. The lowering heights with the
addition of some thin high clouds should knock off 2-4 degrees
from daytime highs for Sunday and Monday, but temperatures will at
most fall back into the normal range. Ensemble guidance then
heavily favors a more pronounced ridge building over the Interior
West by the middle of next week. Assuming this occurs, we will
most likely see lower desert highs warming back to or even
slightly above 90 degrees by around next Wednesday or Thursday.

&&

.AVIATION...Updated at 1730Z.

South Central Arizona including KPHX, KIWA, KSDL, and KDVT:
The on and off shower activity that has been affecting much of the
area throughout the morning is expected to be east of the
terminals by 19-21z with dry conditions prevailing afterwards.
Winds will continue to exhibit highly variable directions through
the first half of the afternoon, although speeds should remain
light aob 7 kts before settling out of a more definite westerly
direction by late this afternoon. A shift out of the east will
then occur by late this evening into the overnight period. Clouds
will continue to scatter out heading into this afternoon before
skies become mostly clear by early this evening.

Southeast California/Southwest Arizona including KIPL and KBLH:
At KIPL, winds will predominate out of the west with gusts upwards
of 25 kts through this evening, although some temporarily gusts
upwards of 30 kts will be possible early this evening with some
visibility reductions possible due to patchy BLDU. At KBLH, winds
will gradually veer out of the west through this evening with
gusts upwards of 20 kts this afternoon. Clear skies will prevail
throughout the period.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
The weather system that is passing by to the northwest of the
region today, has brought some high-based light showers but no
wetting rains. Winds will also become breezy out of the west this
afternoon with the strongest gusts possible across Imperial County
of 30-40 mph. Light mostly westerly winds are then anticipated on
Thursday as temperatures cool back into the normal range. MinRHs
will mostly range between 15-20% across the lower deserts today
before rising to 20-25% on Thursday. High pressure and dry
conditions are then expected by Friday, lasting well into next
week.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...None.
CA...Wind Advisory until 5 AM PDT Thursday for CAZ562.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Ryan
LONG TERM...Kuhlman
AVIATION...Lojero
FIRE WEATHER...Ryan/Kuhlman

NWS Phoenix Office