318
FXUS65 KVEF 221744
AFDVEF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Las Vegas NV
1044 AM PDT Wed Oct 22 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

* A low pressure system moving across the area today will bring
  cooler temperatures and a slight chance of precipitation to the
  southern Sierra and Great Basin.

* After a brief lull Thursday and Friday, another trough of low
  pressure will move into the western U.S. over the weekend,
  bringing cooler conditions and breezy winds to the region.

&&

.DISCUSSION...through Tuesday.

A cut-off low pressure system spinning offshore of southern
California will move into the Southwest U.S. today, bringing an
increased chance of precipitation to portions of the area. The best
chance for showers and a few isolated thunderstorms this morning
will be across our California counties, spreading into Esmeralda and
central Nye counties during the afternoon. Overall, precipitation
impacts in these areas should be minimal, with totals generally
ranging from a trace to a tenth of an inch and isolated amounts up
to a quarter of an inch. An isolated shower or areas of virga will
also be possible in and around the Las Vegas Valley through the
afternoon. Snow levels will remain above 9,000 feet, limiting
snowfall to the Sierra crest, where a few inches of snow will be
possible. This system will also bring breezy winds to the western
Mojave Desert, though gusts are not expected to exceed 30 mph.
Temperatures will be a few degrees cooler than yesterday on average,
especially across Inyo and San Bernardino counties.

A brief lull in the weather is forecast from Thursday afternoon
through Saturday morning as a ridge moves across the area. Later on
Saturday, an approaching upper-level trough will move into the
Pacific Northwest. The latest model runs have shifted this system
farther north, potentially reducing impacts to the region. Southwest
winds are still expected to increase on Saturday and persist into
Sunday, but the probability of seeing wind gusts over 40 mph has
decreased to around 30 percent, mainly across the western Mojave
Desert. Moisture will be limited with this system and precipitation
chances will be confined mainly to the Sierra and far northern
portions of the forecast area. Quiet weather is forecast to return
next week as another ridge of high pressure builds into the region.

&&

.AVIATION...For Harry Reid...For the 18Z Forecast Package...Light
and variable winds will continue into the afternoon with vicinity
shower activity possible in the higher terrain surrounding the
valley. A period of southeast winds is expected this afternoon
before turning southwest after sunset. This morning`s showers and
thunderstorms helped to stabilize the atmosphere, and winds for
this afternoon and evening have been reduced. VFR conditions will
prevail through the TAF period, with BKN to SCT clouds AOA 12kft
AGL into early afternoon, then mainly SCT late afternoon into
tomorrow morning.

For the rest of southern Nevada, northwest Arizona and southeast
California...For the 18Z Forecast Package...Isolated to scattered
showers and thunderstorms will continue across the southern Great
Basin and Inyo County through the afternoon and into the evening
hours. Temporary visibility reductions, lightning, rain, and
variable gusty winds will be possible with these showers and
thunderstorms. With the exception of the western Mojave Deserts
where gusty westerly winds will persist through the TAF period,
winds across much of the area will tend to favor a more southerly
direction through the afternoon with winds eventually swinging
around to the north as the front moves through overnight.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...Spotters are encouraged to report
any significant weather or impacts according to standard operating
procedures.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Planz
AVIATION...Stessman

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NWS Flagstaff Office