811
FXUS65 KVEF 011811
AFDVEF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Las Vegas NV
1110 AM PDT Wed Oct 1 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

* Quiet weather expected until our next system arrives Friday,
  bringing precipitation chances to the Great Basin and dry, gusty
  conditions elsewhere.

* Beyond Friday, temperatures will remain slightly below normal
  along with dry conditions.

&&

.DISCUSSION...through Tuesday.
Quiet weather over the next 24 hours as high pressure brings
generally clear skies, light winds, and near normal temperatures. We
will start to see some minor changes Thursday as a closed low off
the Pacific Northwest coast begins to dig south along the west
coast. This will bring an increasing southwest flow to the region
and better mixing which will allow high temperatures to rise a few
degrees Thursday afternoon. We will also see some increasing surface
winds across central Nye County, but overall there really won`t be
any significant changes from today. The closed low will continue to
dig south Friday and as this occurs, we will start to see increasing
southwest winds with most areas seeing breezy to locally windy
conditions, especially in our locally favored southwest wind belt
stretching from San Bernardino through Clark, Lincoln, and Mohave
counties. Wind gusts between 25-35 mph will be fairly common in
these areas, but the threat of wind gusts over 40 mph is only around
10-20%. Wind advisories are not expected at this time. Another
concern will be for fire weather, but at this time all zones expect
the Lake Mead and lower Colorado River Valley are below critical
fuel status and winds down the river are not expected to reach
criteria. Precipitation chances are largely confined to the Sierra
and Great Basin where NBM PoPs are 25-50%. With snow levels around
9,500-10,000 feet, the Sierra crest will likely (60% chance) see 1-
4" of snow with this system. Elsewhere, where precipitation falls,
it will be in the form of light-to-moderate rain, but that is mainly
regulated to the higher terrain of Esmeralda County.

Beyond Friday, the main low will shift east leaving just a general
trough pattern across the west. This will keep temperatures a few
degrees below normal through into early next week along with mainly
dry conditions.
&&

.AVIATION...For Harry Reid...For the 18Z Forecast Package...Winds
will continue following diurnal directional patterns with light
winds this morning, followed by a southeast wind developing after
19Z. These southeast winds are expected to remain under 8 knots, but
a few isolated gusts to around 14 knots will be possible. After
sunset, look for winds to shift back to the southwest around 7
knots. VFR conditions prevail with dissipating high clouds around
25kft.

For the rest of southern Nevada, northwest Arizona and southeast
California...For the 18Z Forecast Package...Winds generally follow
diurnal directional patterns across the region today, with speeds
remaining around 10KT or less. Exceptions will be in the Owens
Valley, where a brief period of gusty up-valley winds is expected
around KBIH late afternoon through sunset, and across the western
Mojave Desert where westerly winds will persist around 10-12KT. VFR
conditions prevail, with FEW-SCT clouds around 20-25kft giving way
to clear skies by this afternoon.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...Spotters are encouraged to report
any significant weather or impacts according to standard operating
procedures.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Gorelow
AVIATION...Gorelow

For more forecast information...see us on our webpage:
https://weather.gov/lasvegas or follow us on Facebook and Twitter

NWS Flagstaff Office