757
FXUS66 KSGX 142150
AFDSGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Diego CA
150 PM PST Sat Feb 14 2026

.SYNOPSIS...
Periods of rain, wind, and mountain snow are expected Monday through
Thursday. There is a slight chance of thunderstorms Monday afternoon
and evening, locally heavy rain and erratic winds possible where
thunderstorms develop. Low elevation snow is possible Wednesday
evening into Thursday. Chances of precipitation decrease Thursday
into the weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...

Key Points:
*A winter storm will bring widespread, heavy snow to area mountains
 creating hazardous travel conditions Monday through Thursday.

*Gusty southwest to west winds are expected Monday from the coast to
 the deserts. Additional rounds of gusty winds expected late Tuesday
 into Wednesday.

*Moderate to locally heavy rain is expected below the snow level.
 Ponding of water on roads and minor street flooding in urban areas
 possible.

Highs on Sunday are expected to cool a few degrees compared to
today, bringing high temperatures down to near or slightly below
average. Additionally as onshore flow begins to increase ahead of
the incoming low, southwesterly winds will begin to increase across
the mountains and San Bernardino county deserts. Peak gusts Sunday
afternoon will be around 35 mph.

As the upper level low drops south on Monday, a negatively tilted
shortwave is expected to progress across Southern California. This
will kick off a period of rain and mountain snow. Details on rain
and snow can be found in the hydrology section below. In addition to
precipitation, this shortwave will allow winds to increase from the
coast to the deserts. Breezy south winds will develop Monday morning
ahead of the cold front. The strongest winds will occur with and the
few hours after the passage of the cold front. The front will move
from northwest to southeast across the area starting in Orange
County/Inland Empire early Monday afternoon, reaching San Diego
county by late Monday afternoon. For the coast, widespread gusts of
30 to 40 mph expected, with some local gusts up to 45 mph possible
with the frontal passage. For the deserts, gusts 40 to 55 mph
expected. The mountains and desert mountain slopes are expected to
see gusts 55 to up to 70 mph. Gusty winds could result in hazardous
travel conditions, particularly for high profile vehicles; falling
tree limbs; or uproot shallow rooted trees.

A second shortwave is expected Wednesday, which should set off
another round of widespread rain, mountain snow, and gusty winds.
This secondary system looks colder than the first, with the
potential for snow levels to fall to 3500-4000 ft which would result
in snow impacting major passes like the Cajon Pass (I-15) and near
Pine Valley and Crestwood Summit (I-8). Most of the individual
ensemble members of both the ECMWF and GFS are showing measurable
precipitation, but there remains some uncertainty in amounts likely
from the uncertainty in the track of the second shortwave. Overall,
the ensemble means are indicating less overall precipitation for
this second round compared to the first. Chances of showers continue
into Thursday but any precipitation looks lighter. NBM chances of 24-
hour rainfall exceeding 0.25" is 15-25%, highest in the mountains
from Thursday morning to Friday morning.

Precipitation chances lower to around 10% for Friday as most
ensembles have the short wave off to the east by then. High
temperatures will be well below normal through the week, as much as
10-15 degrees below on Wednesday. Slow warming occurs Friday and
Saturday.

&&

.AVIATION...
141830Z...Clear skies and light winds should prevail for much of the
day. Low clouds develop offshore tonight and will move inland
beginning around 00z Sunday. Bases are expected to be higher,
generally 1500-3500ft MSL, rising a bit through the night. Localized
areas of VIS below 3SM for inland valleys and coastal mountains
overnight. For KSAN, clouds may clear after 09z Sun, with
intermittent MVFR CIGs through 16z, and VFR beyond then. SCT-OVC
high clouds AOA 20,000ft MSL move in Sunday.

VFR conditions prevail elsewhere with increasing high clouds AOA
20,000ft MSL Sunday.

&&

.MARINE...
No hazardous marine conditions are expected through Sunday night. A
incoming storm will generate strong winds with high and choppy seas
beginning Monday, weakening a bit on Tuesday before increasing again
on Wednesday. Seas expected to be around 9-13 feet with wind gusts
25-35 knots, with briefly higher to 40 knots. A Gale Watch is in
effect and contains more information. There is also a slight chance
of thunderstorms over the waters Monday afternoon/evening.

&&

.BEACHES...
Increasing westerly swell (9-11 feet with an average period of about
10-12 seconds) will produce large breaking waves of 8-12 feet on
most beaches across Orange and San Diego Counties from Monday
afternoon through Wednesday. Widespread, strong rip currents are
also likely with these waves and dangerous swimming conditions
expected. A High Surf Advisory is in effect and contains more
information.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...

An atmospheric river is expected to bring a surge of moisture to
Southern California on Monday. The increased moisture coinciding
with a shortwave trough moving through the area will spark a period
of rain and mountain snow. Periods of moderate to locally heavy rain
are possible along the main cold front, along with a 15-20% chance
of thunderstorms Monday afternoon. Peak hourly rainfall rates
during the frontal passage will range from 0.40-0.70" per hour.
Current forecast rainfall totals for Monday and Tuesday will be 0.90-
1.25" for the coast and valleys, 1-3.5" for the mountains, near
0.50" for the High Desert, and 0.10-0.40" for the low deserts. Much
of this rain will fall on Monday, with light to locally moderate
showers possible on Tuesday. A Slight Risk of excessive rainfall is
forecast for Orange County into the lower slopes of the San
Bernardino Mountains on Monday.

If rainfall amounts trend up for the northern Coachella Valley,
increased flows on the Whitewater River could cause flooding
concerns at some of the low water crossings. Latest river forecast
ensembles have around a 15% chance of the San Diego River reaching
Monitor Stage on Monday and Tuesday.

Snow levels at the onset of precipitation are currently forecast
around 6500 ft for the San Bernardino Mountains and increasing to
around 7000 ft in San Diego County. This will reduce the flash flood
threat on upper portions of the burn scars and higher elevations of
area mountains. The snow level falls to around 5000-5000 ft Monday
night as precipitation turns lighter and more showery. For the first
round of snow Monday, 3-9 inches expected at 6000-7000 ft, 9-14
inches expected at 7000-8000 ft, and up to 20 inches above 8000 ft.

More information on the forecast precipitation amounts and rainfall
rates for the second round of precipitation (Wednesday into
Thursday) will be provided in the coming days.

&&

.SKYWARN...
Skywarn activation is not requested. However weather spotters are
encouraged to report significant weather conditions.


&&

.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...Wind Advisory from 7 AM to 8 PM PST Monday for Orange County
     Coastal Areas-Orange County Inland Areas-San Bernardino and
     Riverside County Valleys-The Inland Empire-San Diego County
     Coastal Areas-San Diego County Valleys-Santa Ana Mountains
     and Foothills.

     High Surf Advisory from 10 AM Monday to 4 AM PST Thursday for
     Orange County Coastal Areas-San Diego County Coastal Areas.

     Winter Storm Watch from Monday morning through Thursday morning
     for San Bernardino County Mountains.

     Winter Storm Watch from Monday morning through Thursday morning
     for Riverside County Mountains.

     High Wind Watch from Monday morning through late Monday night
     for San Diego County Mountains-San Gorgonio Pass near
     Banning.

     Wind Advisory from 6 AM to 10 PM PST Monday for Apple and
     Lucerne Valleys.

     Wind Advisory from 10 AM Monday to 1 AM PST Tuesday for San
     Diego County Deserts.

PZ...Gale Watch from Monday morning through late Monday night for
     Coastal Waters from San Mateo Point to the Mexican Border
     and out to 10 nm-Waters from San Mateo Point to the Mexican
     Border Extending 10 to 60 nm out including San Clemente
     Island.


&&

$$

PUBLIC...CO
AVIATION/MARINE/BEACHES...Zuber

NWS San Diego (SGX) Office