234
FXUS66 KSGX 101902
AFDSGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Diego CA
1202 PM PDT Sat Oct 10 2026

.SYNOPSIS...
Tropical Storm Rachel will impact Southern California tonight into
Sunday afternoon. Cooler conditions expected into early next week.
Widespread showers and locally heavy rainfall, coastal flooding, and
increased winds are expected Sunday. Elevated winds over the
mountains and into the deserts will continue into Monday morning.
Scattered showers will continue across the coastal basin through the
day Monday. Drier conditions expected for Tuesday onward, with an
increase in temperatures and potential for Santa Ana winds during
the latter half of the week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...

Widespread high cloud coverage can be expected across the area today
as Tropical Storm Rachel quickly approaches Northern Baja. Radar
is indicating areas of rain already with isolated thunderstorms
over the coastal waters and San Diego mountains and deserts.
Rainfall chances will increase from south to north tonight into
Sunday morning as Rachel makes landfall in northern Baja. Winds
are also expected to begin to increase through the day continuing
into Sunday. Elevated winds over the mountains and into the
deserts are expected to continue into Monday morning. Most of the
impacts from Rachel are expected to occur between late tonight and
early Sunday afternoon, with conditions improving from south to
north. Coastal flooding is expected to continue into early next
week due to continued elevated tides and lingering elevated surf.
Please see the Beaches discussion below for more information on
coastal flooding concerns.

Light rain today will become moderate to heavy around midnight
for San Diego County. Based on the current forecast, most
locations will see their heaviest and most widespread rain before
noon, with some potential for moderate to locally heavy rain to
continue into the early afternoon for portions of Riverside and
San Bernardino Counties. Rainfall totals of 0.40 to 1.25 inches
are expected for the coast and valleys with highest totals for
southeastern areas, 1.5 to 3.5 inches for the mountains, and 0.50
to 2 inches of rain for the deserts. Maximum rainfall rates of
0.50-0.60 inches per hour for the coast and valleys, 0.50-0.70
inches per hour for the deserts, and 0.70-1 inch per hour in the
mountains. Remain alert and heed advice of local officials as
areas of flash flooding are possible tomorrow. The San Diego River
at Fashion Valley is currently forecast to peak at 7.5 feet
(action/monitor stage) around noon on Sunday. Those with interests
near the San Diego River should continue to monitor the forecast.

Winds are also expected to increase tonight into Sunday. Tropical
Storm force winds are still possible across San Diego county.
Outside of tropical storm force wind potential the most likely wind
forecast is  25-45 mph through the coastal basin and 50-70 mph near
the mountain ridges. Early Sunday, easterly winds expected for San
Diego and Riverside county mountains, before turning
southwest/westerly. Wind gusts for the coast and valleys are
expected to weaken to 20 to 25 mph and be less frequent for the
afternoon, before weakening in the evening. Winds are expected to
stay elevated from the west over all mountains and deserts into
early Monday morning.

Scattered rain showers will continue across the coastal basin into
Monday. Drier and warmer conditions expected Tuesday through much of
next week. There is a potential for Santa Ana winds to develop for
the end of next week. Low confidence in details.

&&

.AVIATION...
101800Z...Coast/Valleys....Mostly cloudy with BKN-OVC skies AOA 15k
ft MSL through the period. ISO SHRA/TSRA as early as 20Z, weakening
from south to north, best chance for this in San Diego County inland
valleys. Heaviest rain from Tropical Storm Rachel arrives from south
to north after 08Z Sun, arriving near 09-10Z VCTY KSAN.  As rain
nears, expect NW winds to increase and shift to the WSW through mid
morning. Highest winds over San Diego County with a 40% chance of
winds gusting over 30 kts at KSAN between 12Z-16Z. Cloud bases
lowering near 3000 ft and vis down to 3-5SM in heavy rain. Showers
becoming lighter and scattered about Sunday afternoon with high
clouds remaining.

Mountains/Deserts...Mostly cloudy with BKN-OVC skies AOA 15k ft MSL
through Sunday morning. ISO SHRA/TSRA as early as 20Z, weakening
from south to north. Low confidence on TSRA activity across the
lower deserts, including VCTY KPSP. Heaviest rain from Tropical
Storm Rachel arrives from south to north after 10Z Sun, heaviest
rainfall expected 10Z-18Z Sun with cigs lowering near 5000-1000 ft
MSL in any rain. SW winds increase after 12Z with gusts along the
desert slopes 35-55 kts, gusts closer to 25-35kts in the deserts.
Winds becoming more localized after 03Z Mon. Clouds beginning to
scatter out Sunday afternoon/evening.

&&

.MARINE...
Isolated thunderstorms possible over the waters through this
evening. Gusty northerly winds develop later this evening,
turning westerly later in the morning. Winds 20 to 30 knots
expected throughout the coastal waters during these time periods.
Large fresh swell from the northwest will combine with south swell
associated with Tropical Storm Rachel and wind waves to create
combined seas 6 to 10 feet Sunday. Choppy, steep, mixed seas and
gusty winds will produce conditions hazardous to small craft on
Sunday.

Calmer winds and seas expected Monday through the work week.

&&

.BEACHES...
Surf of 3-5 feet with local sets to 6 feet will continue on south
and southwest facing beaches through Saturday. Elevated surf and
strong rip and longshore currents will create hazardous swimming
conditions. This elevated surf will combine with high tides over 7
feet during the mornings and evenings to produce significant coastal
flooding and beach erosion.

Fresh south swell associated with Tropical Storm Rachel will arrive
late tonight into Sunday. This will combine with a larger northwest
swell and strong winds to produce elevated to high surf Sunday for
all area beaches, peaking at 5 to 8 feet with sets to 9 feet. This
will pose a hazard to swimmers and lead to very strong rip currents.
In addition, morning high tides will continue to be 7 to locally 7.5
feet, continuing the threat for significant coastal flooding through
Sunday afternoon. A Coastal Flood Warning is in effect for these
hazards through Sunday at 3 PM. Take the necessary actions to
protect flood-prone property.

Both winds and swells subside for Monday-Tuesday, and surf will
decrease to 3 to 6 feet, though strong rip currents will continue.
Morning high tides will continue to be near 7 feet, meaning that
minor coastal flooding will continue to be an issue through this
period. The Coastal Flood Warning will be replaced with a Coastal
Flood Advisory at 3 PM Sunday and continue through 2 PM Tuesday.

&&

.SKYWARN...
Skywarn activation is not requested. However weather spotters are
encouraged to report significant weather conditions.


&&

.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...Coastal Flood Warning until 3 PM PDT Sunday for Orange County
     Coastal Areas-San Diego County Coastal Areas.

     Tropical Storm Watch for San Diego County Coastal Areas-San
     Diego County Deserts-San Diego County Mountains-San Diego
     County Valleys.

     Flood Watch from 11 PM PDT this evening through Sunday evening
     for Apple and Lucerne Valleys-Coachella Valley-Riverside
     County Mountains-San Bernardino County Mountains-San Diego
     County Coastal Areas-San Diego County Deserts-San Diego
     County Mountains-San Diego County Valleys-San Gorgonio Pass
     near Banning.

     Beach Hazards Statement from Sunday morning through Sunday
     evening for Orange County Coastal Areas-San Diego County
     Coastal Areas.

     Coastal Flood Advisory from 3 PM Sunday to 2 PM PDT Tuesday for
     Orange County Coastal Areas-San Diego County Coastal Areas.

     Wind Advisory from 5 AM Sunday to 5 AM PDT Monday for Apple and
     Lucerne Valleys-San Bernardino County Mountains.

     Wind Advisory from 2 AM Sunday to 5 AM PDT Monday for Coachella
     Valley-Riverside County Mountains-San Gorgonio Pass near
     Banning.

PZ...Tropical Storm Watch for Coastal Waters from San Mateo Point to
     the Mexican Border and out to 10 nm-Waters from San Mateo
     Point to the Mexican Border Extending 10 to 60 nm out
     including San Clemente Island.


&&

$$

PUBLIC...CO
AVIATION/MARINE/BEACHES...APR

NWS San Diego (SGX) Office