266
FXUS66 KSGX 052213
AFDSGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Diego CA
213 PM PST Thu Mar 5 2026

.SYNOPSIS...
Gusty northerly winds today and tomorrow along south-facing mountain
slopes and through the Cajon Pass into inland valleys north of San
Diego County. Offshore winds turn more northeasterly this weekend
and expand to include all coastal slopes and San Diego valleys as a
low pressure system drifts south of the area. This system will bring
a slight chance of showers, mostly in San Diego County on Monday.
Otherwise, warm and sunny conditions expected later next week as a
high pressure system develops.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...

Current visible satellite imagery shows low clouds have cleared
out of the coastal basin, likely not to return until next week as
offshore flow prevails through this weekend. Strong northerly
winds will affect the usual areas through Friday as upper level
flow becomes more north to south oriented. This includes south-
facing coastal slopes and inland valleys north of San Diego
County, where gusts 30-40 mph will be common with isolated gusts
exceeding 50 mph. For today, strong wind gusts will also be
common through the High Desert and through the Coachella Valley.

By Friday evening, a robust shortwave trough will begin to drag
the longwave trough back to the southwest. Current guidance shows
this piece of energy working to strengthen the upper flow as it
moves across southern California sometime early Saturday. This in
combination with a developing surface high over the intermountain
west may cause for quite strong northeasterly winds to surface
along coastal slopes and into inland valleys on Saturday. NBM
probability of exceeding 60 mph gusts in areas surrounding the
Cajon Pass is 60-90%. Thus, a High Wind Watch has been posted for
Saturday along the San Bernardino County coastal slopes and into
the northern Inland Empire. In addition, the northeasterly
direction should allow gusty winds to expand to include all
coastal slopes and inland valleys through the remainder of the
weekend.

As the trough axis continues to dive southwest this weekend, it
will begin to entrain moisture from the ocean. There is a slight
chance for showers, mainly over San Diego County from Sunday
night into Monday. However, guidance continues to trend drier as
the low pushes further south and east with recent model runs.
Regardless, no impacts from precip are expected at this time.

Beyond Monday, there is good agreement that an upper ridge will
move in from the west. Warm and sunny conditions should prevail
through the middle of next week with no signs yet of unsettled
weather, thereafter.

&&

.AVIATION...
051835Z....Coast/Valleys...Mostly clear skies expected through the
period. Gusts 20-30 kts in northern Inland Empire below mountain
passes through 02Z this evening. Areas of LLWS and mod up/down
drafts expected. Winds picking up again after 15Z with gusts a bit
stronger on Friday morning/early afternoon 14-20Z. Moderate
confidence on winds reaching 35 kts at KONT and 25 kts at KSNA
during this time.

Mountains/Deserts...Mostly clear and VFR conditions today and
tonight. Gusty northerly winds expected: 25-40 kts with isold gusts
to 55 kts through mountain passes and on coastal facing foothills.
Areas of LLWS and mod up/down drafts in lee (south of) mountains
mainly in SBD County. Moderate confidence on KPSP gusting to 35 kts
until 00Z this afternoon.

&&

.MARINE...
Stronger northwest winds with gusts up to 25 kts will develop today
generating choppy and hazardous conditions through this evening. A
Small Craft Advisory contains the details. No additional hazardous
marine conditions are expected through Monday.

&&

.SKYWARN...
Skywarn activation is not requested. However weather spotters are
encouraged to report significant weather conditions.


&&

.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...Wind Advisory until 4 PM PST Friday for Orange County Inland
     Areas-San Bernardino County Mountains-San Bernardino and
     Riverside County Valleys-The Inland Empire-Santa Ana
     Mountains and Foothills.

     Wind Advisory until 6 PM PST this evening for Apple and Lucerne
     Valleys-Coachella Valley-San Gorgonio Pass near Banning.

PZ...Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM PST this evening for Coastal
     Waters from San Mateo Point to the Mexican Border and out
     to 10 nm.

     Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM PST this evening for Waters
     from San Mateo Point to the Mexican Border Extending 10 to
     60 nm out including San Clemente Island.


&&

$$

PUBLIC...KW
AVIATION/MARINE...APR

NWS San Diego (SGX) Office