011
FXUS66 KSGX 021828
AFDSGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Diego CA
1028 AM PST Fri Jan 2 2026

.SYNOPSIS...
Isolated light showers will occur throughout the day
and night for areas along and west of the mountains. A weather
system will approach the region this weekend, bringing periods of
heavier showers and elevated southerly winds. The weather pattern
will remain fairly active with chances for showers across the
region through next Thursday with drier and warmer weather
expected thereafter.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...

A robust area of low pressure west of San Francisco continues to
pull in clouds and light showers from the south and southwest.
Most areas across the deserts will remain dry with models showing
isolated light showers and greater cloud coverage today through
Saturday morning as prefrontal showers ahead of the low pressure
system move closer to the State. The main frontal band will push
through our area by early afternoon on Saturday through the
evening, though models still continue to struggle with the exact
timing of this. This band will bring heavier showers across
Southern California this weekend with probabilities to reach one
inch of rain in total around 30-40% across Orange County and far
western Inland Empire. Higher totals near 2-3" are expected across
the coastal slopes of the San Bernardino County Mountains. The
deserts may receive some rain, but most areas will see below one
quarter of an inch. Snow levels will once again remain high as the
southern trajectory of the storm system moves through. Snow
levels will peak around 9,000 feet on Saturday.

As the frontal band approaches, southerly winds will
pick up primarily over the San Bern. Co mountains into the high
desert from Saturday afternoon through Sunday afternoon with gusts
25-45 MPH at times (locally over 50 MPH on the desert slopes).
The desert slopes in other mountain ranges will also be gusty
through the weekend as well. As the front passes, colder air will
infiltrate behind it, where snow levels will drop closer to
6,500-7,500 feet by Sunday afternoon and evening. Accumulations
will be light with places such as Big Bear receiving one inch or
less. Rain showers will continue off and on on Sunday with amounts
becoming lighter as you go south.

The weekend weather system will help to create an open wave
pattern, where small surges of energy will be able to move from
the northwest to southeast over our area through the middle of
next week. This will lead to a continued unsettled weather pattern
with cloudier skies and chances for more rounds of showers.
Chances for showers decrease near 15-25% for areas along and west
of the mountains by Monday, so many areas may see a completely
dry day. Another shortwave moves through the base of the troughing
pattern by Tuesday, which will help aid the formation of a closed
low. Models depict this system moving toward our area, but are
still having difficulty on the exact path of the low, where a
track further off the coast or too far to the south would keep us
drier. NBM POPs increase for now near 20-40% across the region,
where light amounts are expected. Something to keep an eye on in
the coming days. Another shortwave may move near the region by the
middle of the week, but we will have to see how far south this
moves over SoCal, where a slight chance of showers remains
Wednesday through Thursday. Models then show a potential ridge
building across the West Coast after this departs, which will
bring a warming an drying trend by Friday into next weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...
021600Z...BKN clouds around 5000 ft MSL persisting across most of
the coastal basin this morning with FEW-SCT clouds varying from 1000-
2500 ft MSL. -SHRA continue to move north-northwestward through
Orange County and the western Inland Empire through the afternoon.
When over terminals, these light showers will intermittently lower
VIS to 4-6 SM in -RA BR and briefly bring BKN CIGs 800-2500 ft MSL.
The lower deck of clouds will gradually decrease in coverage after
showers move out. Another round of light showers is expected late
Friday evening, pushing slowly from west to east into Orange County
around 05-06Z Saturday and eventually the Inland Empire and coastal
San Diego County around 09-15Z. BKN CIGs around 2000-3000ft MSL are
expected to accompany this second round of showers.

&&

.MARINE...
No hazardous marine weather conditions expected through Tuesday.

&&

.SKYWARN...
Skywarn activation is not requested. However weather spotters are
encouraged to report significant weather conditions.

&&

.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...Beach Hazards Statement through Sunday morning for Orange County
     Coastal Areas-San Diego County Coastal Areas.

PZ...None.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...APR
AVIATION/MARINE...CSP

NWS San Diego (SGX) Office