720
FXUS66 KSGX 141911
AFDSGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Diego CA
1111 AM PST Sat Feb 14 2026

.SYNOPSIS...
Mild and dry this weekend with breezy south winds developing over
the mountains and deserts Sunday afternoon. A winter storm will
bring moderate to heavy rain, mountain snow, and gusty winds
Monday and Tuesday along with a slight chance of thunderstorms
Monday evening. Snow levels fall through Wednesday, with
elevations above 5000-6000 feet likely to see heavy snow and
significant impacts. Additional chances of showers on Thursday,
lowering to around 10% Friday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...

...New Aviation Discussion...

There are a few patches of low clouds over the coastal areas and
valleys, most widespread over the souther Inland Empire, with
clear skies elsewhere. Expect low clouds to clear by late morning
and scattered high clouds to move in this afternoon. More
widespread low clouds across the coastal areas and valleys tonight
into Sunday morning as the marine layer deepens with an
approaching upper level trough. Otherwise high temperatures a few
degrees above normal today, lowering to near to slightly below
normal on Sunday. Breezy south to southwest winds develop across
the mountains and San Bernardino County deserts Sunday afternoon
and evening with peak gusts around 35 mph.

An upper level low currently off the Pac NW coast will slowly drop
south through Monday morning before a negatively tilted short wave
progresses across Southern CA. This wave is still forecast to have
a weak Atmospheric River associated with it. GEFS and EPS ensemble
means currently have Integrated Vapor Transport (IVT) peaking
during the day Monday (though GEFS is a little slower) somewhere
between about 300-500 kg/m/s, though the EPS mean and
deterministic EC are on the stronger end. The EPS has a 45-60%
chance of IVT greater than 500 kg/m/s for a brief period on
Monday, though GEFS probabilities are closer to 30%. Though
relatively narrow and short duration, this has the potential to
produce moderate to heavy precipitation ahead of and along the
cold front on Monday when hourly rainfall rates could exceed
0.50"/hr. There is a 15-20% chance of thunderstorms for the
mountains westward Monday afternoon, which could produce locally
higher rainfall rates. The snow level has trended a little lower
with this AR as well, currently around 6500 ft for the San
Bernardino Mountains and increasing to around 7000 ft in San Diego
County. This will allow for more snow accumulation on Monday for
places like Big Bear, while somewhat reducing the flash flood
threat on upper portions of the burn scars. WPC has also
introduced a Slight Risk of excessive rainfall for Orange County
into the lower slopes of the San Bernardino Mountains on Monday.
The snow level falls to around 5000-5000 ft Monday night as
precipitation turns lighter and more showery. We remain under
cyclonic flow for the remainder of Tuesday, allowing for scattered
showers to continue. See the Hydrology section for details on rain
and snow amounts.

In addition to precipitation, gusty south winds will develop
ahead of the cold front on Monday with widespread gusts of 25-35
mph for the coastal areas and valleys, 45-55 mph in the mountains
and deserts, and isolated gusts of 65 mph on the wind prone desert
mountain slopes/canyons. West winds behind the front will
generally impact the beaches, mountains, and deserts.

There are still some timing differences in the ensembles regarding
the passing of the next short wave on Wednesday, which will
generate another round of widespread precipitation. Current NBM
has highest probabilities of precipitation Tuesday evening through
Wednesday morning, though around 34% of the ensemble space is a
bit slower, bringing the wave through later in the day Wednesday.
This next trough will be colder, with snow levels dropping to
around 4500-5200 ft Wednesday morning and 4000-5000 ft Wednesday
afternoon, highest south. Ensemble spread continues into Thursday
with the progression of the next short wave and the position of
the mean trough. A position too far inland (around 57% of the
ensemble space) would limit the precipitation potential, while a
slower/further west track with a deeper trough (the remaining 43%
of members) would allow for more showers. This is especially
critical as snow levels could fall as low as 3000-3500 ft across
the San Bernardino Mountains and down to 4000 ft in the San Diego
County Mountains in the colder/wetter scenario Thursday morning,
leading to the risk of accumulating snow through the Cajon
Pass/I-15 and near Pine Valley and Crestwood Summit on I-8.

Precipitation chances lower to around 10% for Friday as most
ensembles have the short wave off to the east by then. High
temperatures will be well below normal through the week, as much
as 10-15 degrees below on Wednesday. Slow warming occurs Friday
and Saturday.

&&

.AVIATION...
141830Z...Clear skies and light winds should prevail for much of the
day. Low clouds develop offshore tonight and will move inland
beginning around 00z Sunday. Bases are expected to be higher,
generally 1500-3500ft MSL, rising a bit through the night. Localized
areas of VIS below 3SM for inland valleys and coastal mountains
overnight. For KSAN, clouds may clear after 09z Sun, with
intermittent MVFR CIGs through 16z, and VFR beyond then. SCT-OVC
high clouds AOA 20,000ft MSL move in Sunday.

VFR conditions prevail elsewhere with increasing high clouds AOA
20,000ft MSL Sunday.

&&

.MARINE...
No hazardous marine conditions are expected through Sunday night. A
incoming storm will generate strong winds with high and choppy seas
beginning Monday, weakening a bit on Tuesday before increasing again
on Wednesday. Seas expected to be around 9-13 feet with wind gusts
25-35 knots, with briefly higher to 40 knots. A Gale Watch is in
effect and contains more information. There is also a slight chance
of thunderstorms over the waters Monday afternoon/evening.

&&

.BEACHES...
Increasing westerly swell (9-11 feet with an average period of about
10-12 seconds) will produce large breaking waves of 8-12 feet on
most beaches across Orange and San Diego Counties from Monday
afternoon through Wednesday. Widespread, strong rip currents are
also likely with these waves and dangerous swimming conditions
expected. A High Surf Advisory is in effect and contains more
information.

&&

.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...High Surf Advisory from 10 AM Monday to 4 AM PST Thursday for
     Orange County Coastal Areas-San Diego County Coastal Areas.

PZ...Gale Watch from Monday morning through late Monday night for
     Coastal Waters from San Mateo Point to the Mexican Border
     and out to 10 nm-Waters from San Mateo Point to the Mexican
     Border Extending 10 to 60 nm out including San Clemente
     Island.


&&

$$

PUBLIC...SS
AVIATION/MARINE/BEACHES...Zuber

NWS San Diego (SGX) Office