565
FXUS66 KSGX 080102
AFDSGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Diego CA
502 PM PST Sat Mar 7 2026

.SYNOPSIS...
Gusty Santa Ana winds will continue through Sunday across the
mountains to the coast as an area of low pressure moves over the
region with much warmer weather expected on Sunday. This weather
system will move southward into Mexico, where there is a chance for
light rain over San Diego County by Sunday evening through Monday
evening. As the system exits, cooler weather moves over the region
for Monday and Tuesday. High pressure will move over the area by
Wednesday into the end of next week, bringing the potential for very
warm temperatures yet again with dry weather.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...

An area of low pressure has moved over the region, bringing minimal
cloud cover with a lot of wind! Winds out of the north and northeast
this morning have been gusting near 35-50 MPH across the valleys
with winds locally over 55 MPH along the coastal slopes. As the low
pushes further to the south in Mexico, winds will become more
easterly around the system. This will favor highest winds over the
Riverside and San Diego County coastal slopes and valleys tonight
into Sunday. Most areas in the foothill regions will see winds 25-40
MPH. Model guidance shows around a 50-50 chance of seeing winds over
25 MPH along the North County (SD Co.) coast, over 35 MPH at Ramona
and over 45 MPH at Idyllwild; the most widespread winds expected to
occur on Sunday afternoon. Winds will remain elevated along the
across the IE/OC regions with winds 25-45 MPH across the lower
elevations. A quick warm up will ensue on Sunday as well with most
areas warming up 10 more degrees than they are today. Our warmest
region will be downslope of the Santa Ana mountains in Orange County
with highs in the lower 90s expected, so please stay cool out there.

Hi-res models continue to show areas of light precip, mainly
spreading from east to west across San Diego at times Sunday evening
through Monday evening. Slight increase in PWAT and moisture at the
surface is seen. Surface RH looks drier by Monday, so precip will
have the hardest time falling during this time period. The best
chances to see light rainfall will be across the southern portions
of the SD Co mountains. Some rain may fall across the San Diego
metro, but whatever does fall, will be light.

The area of low pressure over Baja California will begin to move
eastward on Monday and Tuesday. This will bring weaker Santa Ana
winds to the region on Monday and a turn to onshore flow on Tuesday.
This pattern change will aid in high temperatures returning to those
similar of today with highs closer to average. A strong high
pressure system that is currently over the North Pac, will begin
to move over the region by Wednesday into the end of next week.
This system looks hotter as the high may peak near 588-590 mb,
quite strong for this time of year. Mostly sunny with dry weather
and very warm temperatures with highs near 15-20 degrees above
normal will stick around by Thursday into at least next weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...
080030Z....Coast/Valleys/Coastal Slopes...VFR conditions expected
through the TAF period. Strong NE winds continue gusting 20-40 kts
through much of the Inland Empire and in parts of the SD County
coastal slopes, locally 45-65 kts directly south of the Cajon Pass
and west of the Banning Pass.

Wind gusts weaken below 20 kts this evening for much of the
lowlands, though remain strong along coastal slopes and within 10-15
miles downwind of Banning/Cajon passes (including KONT). With winds
remaining strong aloft, areas of LLWS are possible where the sfc
winds diminish, downwind of NE flow tonight (i.e. KSNA, KSBD). E/NE
winds pick up once again across the entire coastal basin after 15z
Sun gusting 20-35 kts in the lowlands and 35-50 kts along coastal
slopes and downwind of passes. Between 19-22z Sun, winds turn
southerly at the coast.

Current water vapor satellite shows mountain waves present across
most of the area. Moderate to strong up/downdrafts can be expected
west of the mountains through the TAF period.

Deserts/Desert Slopes...VFR conditions expected through the TAF
period. Elevated NE winds this afternoon with gusts 20-30 kts in
most areas weaken gradually after 02z this evening. Surface NE
winds increase briefly after 18z Sun, though gusts in the valleys
are likely to remain below 30 kts.

Moderate to strong up/downdrafts through the TAF period as
continuing strong mid-level E/NE winds generate mountain waves over
the Coachella Valley.

&&

.MARINE... Elevated N/NW winds through Sunday morning turn out of
the south Sunday afternoon with gusts nearing 20 knots, primarily
for the inner coastal waters. Otherwise, no additional hazardous
marine conditions are expected through Thursday.

&&

.SKYWARN...
Skywarn activation is not requested. However weather spotters are
encouraged to report significant weather conditions.


&&

.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...Wind Advisory until 5 PM PST Sunday for Orange County Inland
     Areas-Riverside County Mountains-San Bernardino County
     Mountains-San Bernardino and Riverside County Valleys-The
     Inland Empire-San Diego County Mountains-San Diego County
     Valleys-San Gorgonio Pass near Banning-Santa Ana Mountains
     and Foothills.

PZ...None.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...APR
AVIATION/MARINE...Westerink

NWS San Diego (SGX) Office