257
FXUS66 KSGX 021152
AFDSGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Diego CA
352 AM PST Fri Jan 2 2026

.SYNOPSIS...
Light showers will continue into to taper off throughout this
morning, with only a slight chance of a shower or two through the
afternoon hour, otherwise conditions will be drier for today. A
series of weak but colder weather systems will bring more chances
for light to moderate showers over the region for this weekend
through the middle of next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...

Today through tomorrow...

The upper level low which provided the New Year with inclement
conditions is continuing to exit the region with high pressure
temporarily building in behind it before the next low pressure
system moves in this weekend. This is allowing for skies to clear,
along with radiational cooling and plenty of antecedent soil
moisture due to recent rainfall, which has been resulting in patchy
fog developing in some locations, and especially across the high
desert where there are currently widespread areas of fog developing
around the vicinity of Victorville. There are other areas within the
IE, near the Chino Hills area, and at the CNO airport, reporting
reduced visibilities in fog down to a quarter of as mile. This will
also be possible within some of the wind-sheltered inland valleys
through the early morning hours. This will be monitored for the
possibly issuance of a dense fog advisory, if necessary. There are
only a few very light showers still lingering over the inner waters
of the SoCal bight, which will make their way onshore and may
provide some additional light rain and/or drizzle, mainly trough
through late morning, although there could be a few showers
developing later during the afternoon as well. Temperatures under
weak offshore winds later this afternoon will help to warm
temperatures today into the upper 60s and low 70s for much of the
coastal and inland areas. Winds will begin to increase later in the
day out of the south ahead of the approaching trough that will begin
to move in beginning tomorrow.

As the major shortwave trough over the E Pac waters continues to
advance towards California, there will be increasing clouds, and the
main band of rain associated along the tail end of the frontal
boundary of this system passing overhead will begin to push in
beginning by later afternoon tomorrow, as a consensus of the latest
high res guidance suggests. This will allow for moderate rainfall
rates to produce totals of up to around 0.5 inches of rain through
tomorrow for the coastal and inland areas of Orange County (and
higher amounts for the Santa Ana Mountains, with lesser amounts
going south and eastward into San Diego County. There will also be
higher amounts, given the mid-level flow out of the south, for the
same areas of the San Bernardino Mountains which were recently
impacted by heavy rains last week, with some areas in vicinity of
Wrightwood getting up to around 2 inches of rain. Behind the main
passage of the front, there will be more intermittent showers going
into the late evening hours.

Sunday through Thursday...

Going into Sunday, more showery activity will continue as the
positvitely-tilted trough continues to slowly propagate over the
region from west to east, and slightly deepen as it does. This will
allow for yet another shortwave trough embedded within the longwave
to begin to deepen, and latest model runs continue to have this
feature drop a little further southward than previous runs, alluding
to a more active pattern continuing through the mid part of next
week with the chance of precipitation remaining in place across
SoCal as it does, as a persistent mid-level flow out of the
southwest continues to advect moisture over the region. This will
also allow for a gradual cooldown going into the beginning of
next week and then temperatures will remain on the cooler side
under influence of the trough through then.

&&

.AVIATION...
021200Z...BKN clouds around 5000ft MSL persisting across most of the
coastal basin this morning with FEW-SCT clouds varying from 1500-
2500ft MSL. VCSH currently across south-central San Diego County
will gradually move north-northwestward through Orange County and
the western Inland Empire through the late morning and into the
afternoon. When over terminals, these light showers may bring VIS
down to 4-6 SM in -RA BR and briefly bring BKN CIGs between 1500-
2500ft MSL. The lower deck of clouds should decrease in coverage
after the VCSH moves out. Another round of showers is expected late
Friday evening, pushing slowly from west to east into Orange County
around 09z Saturday and eventually the western inland Empire and
coastal San Diego County around 12-18z. BKN CIGs around 2000-3000ft
MSL are expected to accompany this second round of showers.

&&

.MARINE...
No hazardous marine weather conditions expected through Tuesday.

&&

.BEACHES...
High tides of 6.5 to 7 feet this weekend could lead to minor coastal
overflow/flooding for beaches and flood-prone beach lots and
walkways. See the Beach Hazards Statement for more details.

&&

.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...Beach Hazards Statement through Sunday morning for Orange County
     Coastal Areas-San Diego County Coastal Areas.

PZ...None.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...Stewey
AVIATION/MARINE/BEACHES...Munyan

NWS San Diego (SGX) Office