722
FXUS65 KVEF 152030
AFDVEF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Las Vegas NV
130 PM PDT Tue Sep 15 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

* Isolated thunderstorms will be possible across Mohave County
  Wednesday afternoon and evening, with gusty winds and localized heavy
  rainfall possible.

* Elsewhere, breezy south-southwesterly wind gusts will continue
  through the week with dry conditions and near-normal
  temperatures.

&&

.DISCUSSION...through early next week.

Despite respectable northward moisture advection this afternoon,
warm mid-level temperatures are keeping the region capped and
stable with some just some scattered cumulus fields across our
eastern zones. Surface dewpoints have climbed into the low to mid
50s across southern Nevada and northwest Arizona, and even into
the mid-60s along the Colorado River Valley. As a closed low drops
into Northern California and the Great Basin on Wednesday,
northward moisture transport will continue and a few storms may
fire up across Mohave County during the afternoon and evening
hours as favorable jet dynamics help overcome the persistent
capping. Storms should tend to move swiftly thanks to elevated
wind shear in place, but training storms will have the potential
for localized flooding, and the enhanced shear could result in a
few stronger storms capable of small hail and strong wind gusts.

Elsewhere, dry conditions are expected to continue as dry
southwesterly flow keeps monsoonal moisture focused further east
into Arizona. Daily gusty winds can be expected with afternoon
gusts of 25 to 35 mph expected through Wednesday evening, trending
slightly weaker Thursday. The flow pattern will flatten out over
the weekend with wind speeds easing area wide and dry and
seasonable weather continuing.

&&

.AVIATION...For Harry Reid...For the 18Z Forecast Package...
Daily summertime wind pattern expected through the TAF period with
gusty S-SW afternoon winds diminishing after sunset. So far today,
stronger SE (140-160 deg) winds 10-15kt with gusts 20-25kt have
already set up. Expect a shift to the S-SW (180-220 deg) in the 19-
20z timeframe with speeds and gusts continuing to increase into the
afternoon. Isolated gusts may reach 25-30kt before sunset. Expect
winds to diminish after 03z, remaining southerly at or below 8kt.
Similar pattern expected again on Wednesday with SE-SSE winds
increasing around 16z, switching to the S-SW around 18-20z. VFR
conditions prevail with no operationally significant cloud cover,
and temperatures expected to top out around 100 degrees this
afternoon.

For the rest of southern Nevada, northwest Arizona and southeast
California...For the 18Z Forecast Package...Daily wind patterns
expected at most sites through the TAF period. Strong SSE-S winds 10-
15kt with gusts 20-25kt have already set up across the Mojave
Desert. Expect winds to continue increasing into the afternoon hours
with an isolated gust near 30kt possible. KBIH remains light and
variable for the next few hours but expect a stronger SSE push after
20-21z through around sunset, then lighter NW flow develops tonight.
Light W winds at KDAG become light and VRB this afternoon, favoring
a NE direction before stronger WSW winds 10-15kt with higher gusts
arrive around 23-00z. KDAG should follow their usual daily wind
trend with stronger WSW-WNW winds in the evening, diminishing during
the overnight hours. Winds at KIFP and KEED should diminish somewhat
after sunset but confidence remains higher that elevated winds may
persist overnight with isolated gusts 15-20kt overnight. Isolated
thunderstorms are expected, mainly over northwestern Arizona and
eastern Lincoln County this afternoon and evening...not expecting
impacts from associated outflow at the terminals. Otherwise, VFR
conditions prevail with no operationally significant cloud cover
elsewhere.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...Spotters are encouraged to report
any significant weather or impacts according to standard operating
procedures.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Outler
AVIATION...Moore

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NWS Las Vegas (VEF) Office