052
FXUS65 KVEF 141737
AFDVEF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Las Vegas NV
937 AM PST Sat Feb 14 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

* A potent weather system will bring widespread precipitation,
  heavy mountain snow, and gusty winds to the region Monday into
  Tuesday.

* The weather pattern will remain active with a second, colder
  system moving through the region late Tuesday into Wednesday.

* Cooler than normal temperatures will continue through the end of
  the week as troughing persists over the region.

&&

.DISCUSSION...through Friday.

Weather over the weekend will be characterized by warmer than
normal temperatures, dry conditions, and southerly breezes. This
pleasant weather will come to an abrupt end early next week as a
potent trough rolls through the Southwestern US on Monday and
Tuesday. This system will bring a significant increase in moisture
to the area with precipitable water increasing to around 150% of
normal thanks to the plume of moisture this system has drawn up
from the tropics. Given the moisture associated with this system,
it is unsurprising that we are expecting widespread showers across
the region early next week with heavy snow expected in the
mountains of Inyo County and southern Nevada. A Winter Storm Watch
remains in effect for the Eastern Sierra and the White Mountains
of Inyo County from late Sunday night through Wednesday evening,
as confidence is high that heavy snow and strong winds will result
in moderate-to-major impacts. Snow-levels will start off around
6,000 to 7,000 feet, but will fall overnight from Monday into
Tuesday as this system moves overhead. This will bring the
potential for rain transitioning to snow in the Owens Valley and
elevations above 5,000 feet in the southern Great Basin. Locations
below the snow line can expect light- to-moderate showers
resulting in wet, slick roadways, water flowing in normally dry
washes, and the ponding of water on roads in low- lying areas. In
addition to widespread precipitation, this system will also bring
cooler temperatures and strong southerly winds to the region, with
widespread 30 to 40+ mph wind gusts expected early next week.

A second, colder system will drop into the region right on the
heels of the aforementioned Monday-Tuesday system. This second
system will bring another round of precipitation chances to the
area late Tuesday into Wednesday. Snow levels with this second
system will start off lower, around 4,000 to 5,000 feet, resulting
in more widespread winter weather impacts across Inyo County, the
Great Basin, and northwestern Arizona. There is even a chance for
winter impacts to extend into San Bernardino County with snow at
Mountain Pass and in the higher terrain of the Mojave National
Preserve. As was the case with the first system, elevations below
the snow line can expect to see light-to-moderate rain showers as
this second system rolls through. Strong southerly winds will
continue through Tuesday with 30 to 40+ mph wind gusts expected
throughout the day. Precipitation will taper off on Wednesday with
winds beginning to trend downward as the second system moves
clears out.

Colder than normal temperatures will continue through the end of the
week as troughing continues over the region. We may see shortwaves
embedded in the upper-level flow move through the area during the
second half of the week. However, precipitation chances with these
systems will be limited as the anomalous moisture that fueled
showers earlier in the week will have been scoured from the area.

&&

.AVIATION...For Harry Reid...For the 18Z Forecast Package...Winds
will remain light and follow typical daily directional patterns,
with some variability through tonight. By tomorrow afternoon, an
increase in southerly (160 to 190 true) winds is expected, with
occasional gusts to 20 knots possible after 21Z. VFR conditions will
prevail into Sunday, with increasing mid- and high-level clouds from
this afternoon onward. Bases are expected to remain AOA 15kft AGL
into Sunday afternoon. A period of unsettled weather with cloud
bases falling below 5kft AGL is expected from Monday through
Wednesday, although exact timing remains uncertain.


For the rest of southern Nevada, northwest Arizona and southeast
California...For the 18Z Forecast Package...Winds across the region
will remain around 5 to 10 knots and follow typical diurnal
directional patterns, with a couple of notable exceptions. First, in
the Owens Valley, gusty up-valley winds are expected to develop by
early afternoon. Initially, gusts around 20 knots can be expected,
increasing to near 30 knots by mid-afternoon.  Lighter winds are
likely overnight, but will increase to above 20 knots again by late
Sunday morning. Second, a period of breezy southeast winds is
expected across the southern part of the Las Vegas Valley, including
KHND, late this afternoon and early evening.  A few gusts to 20
knots are possible after 21Z, but should diminish after sunset.
Otherwise, VFR conditions will prevail in all areas into Sunday
morning. Mid- and high-level clouds will move in west to east this
afternoon and evening, with coverage gradually increasing Sunday. A
period of unsettled weather is expected from Monday through at least
Wednesday, with valley rain, mountain snow, and bases potentially
falling below 3kft AGL at times in some areas.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...Spotters are encouraged to report
any significant weather or impacts according to standard operating
procedures.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Stessman
AVIATION...Planz

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NWS Las Vegas (VEF) Office