937
FXUS65 KPSR 281710
AFDPSR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Phoenix AZ
1010 AM MST Sat Mar 28 2026

.UPDATE...
Updated Aviation

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Breezy to windy conditions are expected through early this
afternoon across southern Arizona.

- Unseasonably hot temperatures will continue to challenge daily
records through Monday before noticeable cooling during the middle
of next week.

- Isolated showers and maybe a thunderstorm or two will be possible
mostly over the eastern Arizona high terrain early next  week.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Current objective analysis shows a strong upper level ridge centered
over central Texas and a weak shortwave trough moving through
central California into Nevada. A backdoor cool front is also
currently surging westward through the eastern half of Arizona. In
the near-term, the front will cause increasingly gusty winds through
the rest of the morning across southern Arizona. The highest wind
gusts will be focused east of the Phoenix area with Advisory level
winds possible along ridgetops and within some valley locations
where winds will be enhanced due to channeling effects. Winds will
then weaken quite quickly during the afternoon hours.

Between the weakening ridge and the shortwave trough passing  across
northern portions of the region into Sunday, southerly flow will
increase allowing for some gradual moisture advection starting
Sunday. Guidance has been showing some minimal shower and weak
thunderstorm chances across far southern and eastern Arizona as
moisture profiles start to improve by Sunday afternoon, but it
should only be enough for some isolated high-based activity with
little to no measurable rainfall.

Temperatures today will be noticeably cooler behind the backdoor
cool front with highs falling back into the low to mid 90s across
the south-central lower deserts. Highs across the western lower
deserts will only drop a degree or two from yesterday`s highs.
Despite the ridge weakening this weekend, heights over our region
will not change much. As a result, Sunday`s forecast highs go back
up more in to the mid to upper 90s for south-central Arizona.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Moisture advection will strengthen Sunday night into Monday,
especially in the low to mid levels as a Gulf surge is forecast for
Sunday night. This will temporarily raise surface dew points well
into the 50s for Monday morning before dropping back down into the
40s as drier westerly flow aloft mixes down into the boundary layer
Monday afternoon. The lack of forcing on Monday and drying already
settling back in should limit shower and thunderstorm chances to the
eastern Arizona high terrain. Low level mixing ratios may briefly
increase to around 7 g/kg Monday afternoon, but this amount of
moisture should only be enough for isolated to scattered weak high
terrain convection. The west southwesterly flow should then continue
to keep the drier air in place for Tuesday decreasing PoPs to only
around 10% for the eastern Arizona high terrain. A second shortwave
is then forecast to move through our region from the northwest on
Wednesday bringing a weak cold front and perhaps another round of 10-
20% PoPs focused over the Arizona high terrain. However, these
NBM/WPC mandated PoPs on Wednesday are very likely too high based on
local forecaster pattern recognition/experience. Ensemble guidance
then generally agrees our region will stay under zonal to quasi-
zonal dry westerly flow through the rest of next week, ending any
very minimal rain chances.

Temperatures early next week will start off quite warm with highs
mostly in the low to mid 90s on Monday and the lower 90s on Tuesday.
However, both of these well-above normal days should have a good
deal of high cloudiness taking the edge off the heat. Once the cold
front passes through later Tuesday and Tuesday night, temperatures
will finally drop back to within a few degrees of normal starting
Wednesday. The latest NBM/WPC forecast temperatures for Wednesday-
Friday show highs mostly in the mid 80s and lows mostly in the 50s.

&&

.AVIATION...Updated at 1710Z.

South Central Arizona including KPHX, KIWA, KSDL, and KDVT:
Gusty east winds with lofted dust and visibility issues will be the
primary weather issues through Sunday morning under occasional
mid/high cloud decks. Confidence is very good that east winds will
prevail the entire period with gusts around 25kt common late
morning/early afternoon before weakening. Copious amounts of lofted
dust will continue to create significant slantwise visibility issues
through this evening, though sfc visibility should remain in a VFR
category.


Southeast California/Southwest Arizona including KIPL and KBLH:
No major weather issues will exist through Sunday morning under
periods of mid/high cloud decks. Winds will generally oscillate
between a SE and SW direction with speeds up to around 12 kt.
However, periods of variable directions will also be common.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Unseasonably hot temperatures with dry conditions will continue this
weekend. MinRH values will increase to 10-20% starting today, while
MaxRHs range from 20-30% across the western districts to 30-40%
across the eastern districts. Winds through early afternoon will be
gusty at times, particularly across the eastern districts where
gusts of 35-45 mph will be possible. Winds should taper off below 15
mph by late this afternoon. Due to the breezy to locally windy
conditions, elevated to near critical fire weather conditions will
be present through at least the first half of today. Sunday will
bring lighter winds overall, but still some afternoon gusts up to 20
mph. There will be at slight chances for rain (10-30%) Monday
through Wednesday, but the CWR will be under 10%. Any showers that
do develop will be capable of producing gusty and erratic outflow
winds, which could impact any existing fires.

&&

.CLIMATE...

Daily record highs:

Date      Phoenix         Yuma         El Centro
----      -------         ----         ---------
3/28     95 in 2015     98 in 2015     98 in 2015
3/29     97 in 2015    100 in 1897     97 in 1969

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...Wind Advisory until 11 AM MST this morning for AZZ547-549-
     551>553-555>558-560>563.

CA...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Kuhlman
LONG TERM...Kuhlman
AVIATION...18
FIRE WEATHER...Kuhlman
CLIMATE...RW/18

NWS Phoenix (PSR) Office