709
FXUS65 KPSR 250505
AFDPSR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Phoenix AZ
1005 PM MST Sat Jan 24 2026

.UPDATE...
Updated Aviation

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Locally breezy conditions will continue along the Lower Colorado
River including portions of Southeast California and Southwest
Arizona through tomorrow.

- Drier conditions return tomorrow along with slightly below normal
temperatures and localized freezes in the morning, followed by
gradual warming with continued dry conditions next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
So far, over the past couple of days, not much rain has fallen
across south-central AZ, despite PWAT levels up to 150-200% of
normal. There have been a few areas in Phoenix with a few hundredths
to one tenth. Even most of the high terrain east of Phoenix has only
received less than a tenth, and only a couple spots have received
one to 3 tenths. However, this is not surprising as the synoptic and
mesoscale setup has not been favorable for south-central AZ, with an
upper low staying south of the region, plus most of the abnormal
moisture has been above the boundary layer.

While the weather conditions have been pretty tranquil so far today,
there will still be one more chance for showers, and even a
thunderstorm, this afternoon through early tonight with a shortwave
trough still yet to move through. This shortwave can easily be
picked out on wv satellite just pushing into northwest AZ early this
afternoon. Scattered showers have already been developing just ahead
of the shortwave axis and as the shortwave continues east-
southeastward it will bring the scattered showers through south-
central AZ over the next 12 hours. The best chance at a thunderstorm
this afternoon and evening will be from Phoenix`s longitude
eastward, where limited surface instability - up to a couple hundred
Joules of SBCAPE - has developed. Any storm will be capable of
producing very brief downpours, small hail, and strong gusty winds
around 20-30 mph. Rain totals, where rain actually falls, will
remain on the light side, with HREF probability only at 5-10% of
>0.10" in Phoenix and around 20-40% of >0.25" in southern Gila
County.

There will be a relatively strong cold front associated with the
passing shortwave trough later today tonight that will act as a
pallet cleanser for the current abnormal moisture, with significant
drying post-front. PWAT anomalies are forecast to go from 100-150%
of normal now to 25-50% of normal by noon Sunday. A strong northerly
gradient wind will also develop today in response to strong pressure
rises in the Great Basin. Winds will be highest down the Lower
Colorado River where station observations are already showing gusts
up to 20-30 mph. The elevated winds out west will continue through
tonight and may gust locally as high as 35-40 mph.

Colder air will also follow in the wake of the shortwave trough,
with some higher terrain and lower desert valley locations dipping
down to or slightly below freezing the next few mornings. No freeze
products are planned at this time as most of the spots that will
experience a freeze have already seen a freeze this winter.
Afternoon highs Sunday will be around 2-5 degrees below normal, in
the 60s across the lower deserts.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A somewhat complex upper level pattern takes shape next week with
global ensembles in good agreement that the North Pacific jet will
extend well into the east Pacific, and a split jet regime will
evolve downstream over the Western CONUS. Despite the complexity,
midlevel heights paint a quiescent picture, with ridging sliding
east off the Pacific and building over the Western US (especially
over the Northwest). This will result in a warming trend beginning
Monday and lasting through at least the middle of the upcoming work
week. Some breeziness out of the NE/E will be possible into early
next week as suggested by the large-scale MSLP gradient, but this
should not be impactful.

By the latter half of the upcoming work week, WPC cluster analysis
reveals disagreement on the impacts of a possible weather
disturbance undercutting the ridge and influencing the area by
Thursday-Friday. Slight rain chances may re-enter the picture for
the AZ high terrain or Southeast AZ, though this will rely on the
exact trajectory, residence time, and strength of the disturbance.
At this time, the main impact looks to be a temporary pause on the
warming trend and perhaps another period of increased breeziness.
QPF amounts this far out, even at the 90th percentile of the NBM,
are very light and confined to E/SE AZ high terrain.

&&

.AVIATION...Updated at 0505Z.

South Central Arizona including KPHX, KIWA, KSDL, and KDVT:
Uncertainty in wind directions through the overnight and Sunday
morning will be the primary weather issue under clearing skies. N/NW
winds should prevail much of the overnight with a tendency towards
veering NE Sunday morning, though timing of a wind shift carries low
confidence with variability during the transition possible. Forecast
confidence is much better that a light westerly fetch will develop
Sunday mid afternoon before reverting to easterly Sunday evening.


Southeast California/Southwest Arizona including KIPL and KBLH:
Locally breezy north winds overnight and Sunday afternoon will be
the greatest weather issue under mostly clear skies. KBLH will be
most at risk for gusts 20-25kt with some question about decoupling
effects. Any gusts at KIPL will be weaker, far more brief or even
absent with moderate confidence of directions temporarily reverting
to westerly by sunrise.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Spotty showers with an isolated storm is expected this afternoon
through early tonight across south-central AZ. CWR remains best
across southern Gila County. The convective showers and any storm
today will be capable of producing localized wind gusts up to 20-30
mph and small hail. A northerly wind gradient has developed already,
and is strongest across western districts, resulting in breezy
conditions primarily along the Lower Colorado River Valley and the
adjacent typically prone areas of Southwest AZ and Southeast CA.
Breezy conditions will linger through tonight and tomorrow morning
before gradually subsiding. Localized wind gusts may peak as high as
35-40 mph. MinRHs will be in a 30-60% range today, increasing from
west to east, and then dry considerably heading into tomorrow, with
MinRHs dropping into a 10-25% range. Near normal temperatures today
will drop to slightly below normal tomorrow before a warming trend
commences early next week.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...None.
CA...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Benedict
LONG TERM...Whittock
AVIATION...18
FIRE WEATHER...Benedict/Whittock

NWS Phoenix (PSR) Office