040
FXUS65 KPSR 101006
AFDPSR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Phoenix AZ
306 AM MST Tue Nov 10 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Elevated flows will continue on the Salt and Gila Rivers
  through at least the middle of the week due to recent releases
  from upstream dams.

- Dry and tranquil weather with slightly above normal temperatures
  will continue through middle of the week.

- A more unsettled pattern is expected by the weekend with
  increasing rain chances and cooler temperatures .

&&

.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Little has changed over the past 24 hours with upper level ridging
remaining in charge across the Southwestern U.S. H5 heights are
hovering between 582-585dm, or near the 90th percentile of
climatology, which is allowing for a continuation of the slightly
above normal temperatures. The weather pattern will start to
become more amplified on Wednesday, but it will not initially lead
to any changes across our region. Anticipate daytime highs to
stay mostly in the lower 80s to at most 85 degrees through
Thursday and overnight lows averaging 55-60 degrees. The dry air
in place under the ridge will also keep skies clear through
Thursday.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A clear pattern shift later this week is likely to lead to a
quasi-blocking flow regime as the flow becoming highly amplified
over the eastern Pacific through the entire CONUS and Canada. The
ridge over the Intermountain West is expected to extend into
southern Canada by Thursday with deep troughing developing off the
West Coast and over the Northeastern U.S. Despite the highly
amplified flow, the upstream trough to our northwest should be
enough to kick the ridge just to the east of our region later
Thursday into Friday as a modest shortwave trough peels off from
the parent large scale trough. Model guidance is still struggling
to come to a full consensus on the track and the strength of the
incoming disturbance for Friday into Saturday. Trends over the
past couple of days have shifted the system more over Baja and
Sonora Mexico while also showing some noticeable weakening as it
tracks by just to our south on Friday. A second shortwave trough
may also track by just to our north on Saturday.

Despite the lingering model uncertainty later this week, we are
nearly assured to have increasing higher level clouds early on
Friday followed by some weak lower level moisture advection out of
the south during the latter half of Friday. Ensemble mean PWATs
are shown to increase to between 175-200% of normal starting
Friday, but due to the bulk of the system energy likely bypassing
to the south on Friday and to the north on Saturday we are not
anticipating widespread rainfall. NBM PoPs are still mostly
between 10-25% for the Arizona lower deserts to 20-35% for the
higher terrain north and east of the Phoenix area from midday
Friday through much of Saturday. Rainfall is expected to be light
with total amounts of a trace to at most 0.10" across the lower
deserts to localized amounts of 0.10-0.20" over the high terrain.
We also can`t completely rule out a weak thunderstorm or two on
Friday focused across far southern Arizona since forecast MUCAPE
does increase to 200-300 J/kg. Temperatures will start to drop
on Friday with lower desert highs falling back into the upper 70s
to around 80 degrees followed by mid to upper 70s over the
weekend. The unsettled weather pattern is expected to continue
into next week with even better rain chances by around next
Tuesday.

&&

.AVIATION...Updated at 1005Z.

No major weather concerns are expected through the TAF period.
Light and diurnal winds are expected. Wind speeds are expected to
remain light through the period, generally 6 kts or less, with
periods of VRB, especially at KSDL, likely. Skies will remain
mostly clear aside from a few high clouds passing over
southcentral AZ.

Southeast California/Southwest Arizona including KIPL and KBLH:

No aviation weather concerns are anticipated through the forecast
period. Winds will favor a W-NW component at KIPL and N direction at
KBLH, albeit with prolonged periods of nearly calm conditions at
both terminals. FEW-SCT passing high clouds will be common through
the TAF period.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Dry conditions and slightly above normal temperatures will
prevail through at least Thursday. Minimum humidity values will
hover near 25-40% across eastern districts and 20-30% in western
districts. This follows fair to good overnight recovery near
30-60% in western areas and good to excellent levels 50-80% in
eastern areas. Expect overall light winds, but also some
marginally breezy conditions across ridge tops and terrain gaps
of eastern districts during the morning hours. A more unsettled
weather pattern is expected to settle over the region by the
weekend increasing moisture and rain chances and dropping
temperatures.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...None.
CA...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Kuhlman
LONG TERM...Kuhlman
AVIATION...Salerno/Ryan
FIRE WEATHER...Kuhlman

NWS Phoenix (PSR) Office