625
FXUS66 KLOX 182313
AFDLOX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard CA
413 PM PDT Sat Apr 18 2026

.SYNOPSIS...18/1224 PM.

Dry and warm conditions through Monday. Locally breezy offshore
flow today, turning onshore next week. A weak to moderate storm
system will bring widespread rain Monday Night through Tuesday,
focused over San Luis Obispo and Santa Barbara Counties. Impacts
will generally be minor. Widespread gusty west to northwest winds
to follow Wednesday through Friday.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TDY-TUE)...18/1226 PM.

The quick round of offshore flow will transition back to onshore
flow sundown. While temperatures will drop a bit Sunday and
Monday as a result, high pressure aloft will linger and will keep
temperatures above normal. Coastal areas will be at the mercy of
the marine layer. While low clouds are pretty minimal at the
moment, onshore surface pressure gradients are in line to be
neutral Sunday morning which usually is a recipe for some dense
fog after an offshore spell. Always a difficult call. The onshore
shift will also spin up some gusty southwest winds over typical
interior areas. Wind Advisories are unlikely, but gusts in the 25
to 35 mph should be expected each afternoon. Look for ample high
clouds to stream over the area tonight into Sunday.

A low pressure system, currently centered above 500 miles west of
Washington state, will cutt off from the prevailing jet and
slowly move south through Sunday, eventually settling just off
the northern California coast for Monday and Tuesday. Warm and
moderately moist (pwats around 1 inches) southwest flow on the
east side of the low will produce a slow moving band of rain over
northern and central California with a potential for notable
impacts up there. As the band moves to the south and through
Ventura and Los Angeles Counties later Tuesday, it will be a shell
of itself having lost most of its energy. Any rain will be light
(0.10 to 0.33 inches) with good model agreement on that. For San
Luis Obispo and Santa Barbara Counties however, they are squarely
in between these two scenarios with a range of outcomes. The
majority of the solutions and the most likely scenario calls for
moderate amounts, generally 0.50 to 1.00 inches except 1 to 2
inches for favored foothills and mountains. There are however
about 20% of the projections that show 1.5 to 2.0 times those
amounts, which includes a 5-10% chance of thunderstorms. If the
most likely outcome plays out, rates of 0.10 to 0.33 inches per
hour will be common and impacts will be generally minor (slick
roads and wet outdoor events). If the higher-end scenario plays
out, it still would not result in major impacts, but some
localized minor to moderate flooding impacts would be added to the
table, focused over the roads.

Snow levels look to stay above 6,500 feet so snow impacts will be
minimal to none. South to southwest winds will bring gusts of 20
to 40 mph to parts of the area, especially over the mountains and
much of San Luis Obispo and Santa Barbara Counties. High temperatures
will obviously fall, with 60 to 70 fairly common.

.LONG TERM (WED-SAT)...18/1224 PM.

The closed low that will bring rain on Tuesday will open up and
move to the northeast on Wednesday. Some projections have a weak
shortwave rotating around the low and through San Luis Obispo and
Santa Barbara Counties. If this ends up happening, a few scattered
showers would be around on Wednesday (about a 20% chance). These
showers do not look convective and any impacts would be minor.

Winds will be on the rise for the back half of next week. Most
projections show a classic post-frontal west to northwest wind
push on Wednesday and Thursday, with fairly widespread gusts of 25
to 45 mph focused over coastal, mountain, and desert areas. The
winds become more northwesterly later Thursday and Friday as a
weak inside slider moves through, with winds focused over the
more typically windy areas. Saturday could see continued northwest
winds, or some solutions show the inside slide retrograding west
and over our area. Temperatures will recover some for the end of
the week, but just to about normal for this time of the year.

&&

.AVIATION...18/2312Z.

At 2200Z at KLAX, the marine layer was 800 feet deep. The top of
the inversion was 1200 feet with a temperature of 21 degrees
Celsius.

Overall for the 00Z TAF package, high confidence in VFR
conditions for KPRB, KSBP, KSBA, KOXR, KCMA, KBUR, KVNY, KPMD and
KWJF.

For KSMX, there is a 40% chance of LIFR/VLIFR conditions 08Z-17Z.
For KSMO, KLAX and KLGB, there is a 20% chance of IFR/LIFR
conditions 09Z-17Z.

KLAX...High confidence in 00Z TAF as VFR conditions are likely
through the period. There is a 20% chance of IFR/LIFR conditions
09Z-17Z. No significant easterly wind component is expected.

KBUR...High confidence in 00Z TAF as VFR conditions are expected
through the period.

&&

.MARINE...18/757 AM.

High confidence in winds and seas remaining below Small Craft
Advisory (SCA) levels through Sunday. A system will move through
the coastal waters Monday through Wednesday morning bringing the
chance for showers mainly north of Point Conception. Cannot rule
out a thunderstorm or two across the northern waters Monday
afternoon through Tuesday morning.

SCA level winds are possible along the cold front. By wednesday
afternoon into the evening hours, SCA level NW winds will develop
south of Point Conception. These winds will likely expand to
include the majority of waters by Thursday afternoon. SCA winds
may persist into the weekend at least for some waters.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...Kittell
AVIATION...RAT
MARINE...Black
SYNOPSIS...RK

weather.gov/losangeles

Experimental Graphical Hazardous Weather Outlook at:
https://www.weather.gov/erh/ghwo?wfo=lox

NWS Los Angeles (LOX) Office