123
FXUS66 KLOX 091015
AFDLOX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard CA
315 AM PDT Thu Jul 9 2026

.SYNOPSIS...09/310 AM.

Moderate heat impacts will continue through Friday away from the
coast in response to a strong ridge of high pressure over the
region. Temperatures will decrease slightly over the weekend as
the ridge moves away from the region, but some heat impacts will
continue. Monsoonal showers and thunderstorms will be possible
starting Sunday. Temperatures will begin to build once again on
Tuesday, potentially reaching Major Heat Risk levels, with the
monsoonal moisture adding to the discomfort from the heat.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TDY-SAT)...09/310 AM.

An upper level 595 dam high is situated just to the SW of LA. It
will remain stationary for through Friday morning and then begin
to slowly drift to the ENE. Hgts over Srn CA during the 3 day
period will be between 594 and 595 dam, which is 3 to 4 dam
higher than normal for this time of year. This morning there will
be about 2mb of onshore flow to the east and about 2mb of
offshore flow from the north. Onshore trends over the next three
days will result in mdt to stg onshore flow both to the east and
north by Saturday.

There will only be minimal low clouds this morning concentrated
across the Central Coast, the Paso Robles area and the KLGB-KLAX
cstl area. The increase in onshore flow will bring more low clouds
to the csts Friday morning. The stronger onshore flow will bring
plenty of low clouds to the csts on Saturday morning and locally
into the lower vlys. Skies Saturday will be partly cloudy after
the low clouds dissipate as mid and high level clouds rotate into
the area around the upper high.

High temperatures continue to be the main concern through the
forecast period. Today will be the warmest day with the above
normal hgts and the weakest onshore flow. Most max temps will be
about a degree warmer than ydy`s very warm readings. The exception
today will be the Central Coast which due to the weaker onshore
flow will see 4 to 8 degrees of warming. Vly temps today will
range from 88 to 102 degrees or 4 to 8 degrees above normal. The
increasing marine layer and onshore flow will bring some cooling
to the csts and vlys each day Fri and Sat while the mtns and
interior will see little change. Heat advisories continue over
many areas (humidities will be on rise and this increase will
mitigate the cooler temps) please see the product LAXNPWLOX for
details.

Advisory level Sundowner winds are once again likely this evening
for Southwest Santa Barbara County. Elevated fire weather
conditions will continue for this area as well.

.LONG TERM (SUN-WED)...09/310 AM.

The upper high will continue to drift to the NE and will end up
over South Dakota by Monday where it will stay through most of
next week. Srn CA will end up on the western periphery of the
high and SE flow will set up and persist over the area. Hgts will
not change much day to day and will be near 593 dam. At the sfc
there will be gradual weakening of the onshore flow will the
possibility of offshore flow developing from the north Tuesday or
more likely Wednesday.

The SE flow will bring monsoon moisture into the area with partly
to mostly cloudy skies due to mid and high level clouds likely
Sunday and Monday. There will also be enough onshore flow to bring
low clouds to the csts and lower vlys each morning. PWAT quickly
increase overnight Saturday and persist into Monday. The moisture
will be low enough to bring a 10-20 percent chc of showers and
isold TSTMs to VTA and LA counties. The best chc each day will be
in the afternoons and early evenings over the mtns esp the eastern
LA mtns. The increase in humidities will keep the heat index high
enough to continue the low end heat advisories for most areas away
from the csts.

The monsoon will likely cut off on Tuesday and skies will be much
clearer for Tue and Wed. The amount of marine layer clouds will
shrink as the offshore trends take affect. The copious sunshine
and weaker onshore flow will add up to two days of warming. The
current forecast call for 3 to 6 degrees on Tue and 1 to 3 degrees
on Wed. If, however, the offshore develops as some ensemble
members indicate then max temps would end up much higher and an
extreme heat watch is in effect to cover this possibility which
stands at about 30 percent right now.

&&

.AVIATION...09/1014Z.

At 0825Z at KLAX, the marine layer was 900 ft deep. The top of
the inversion was at 2300 ft deep with a temperature of 27 C.

High confidence in TAFs for KSBA, KBUR, KVNY, KPMD and KWJF.

Fair confidence in TAFs for KSBP and KSMX with a 30 percent chc
of VLIFR conds 10Z-15Z. VFR conds could occur +/- 1 hour from
fcst.

Good confidence in TAFs for KOXR and KCMA with a 15 percent chc
of IFR cigs 13Z-16Z.

Moderate confidence in TAFs for KSMO, KLGB and KLAX. VFR
transition could be off by +/- 90 minutes and cigs off by 300 ft.

KLAX...Moderate confidence in TAF. There is a 40 percent chc of
no cigs. Good confidence that VFR conds will arrive between 1630Z
and 1830Z. Good confidence that any east wind component will be
AOB 6kt.

KBUR...High confidence in TAF.

&&

.MARINE...09/314 AM.

For the outer waters, current Gale Warnings look on track ending
Thursday morning. Small Craft Advisory (SCA) level NW winds will
follow, lasting through at least Friday morning. Large 10-12 ft
seas will subside Friday, but current SCA may need to be extended
into Friday night due to winds and seas.

SCA level NW-W winds, with local gusts near gale force are
expected for the inner waters along the Central Coast until
Thursday morning. There is a 40% chance of Gales across the
nearshore waters along the Central Coast and the Santa Barbara
Channel through Thursday morning. Local SCA level wind gusts are
also possible for far western portions of the Santa Barbara
Channel through Thursday morning.

For the inner waters south of Point Conception, conditions are
expected to remain below SCA levels.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...Heat Advisory now in effect until 10 AM PDT Tuesday for zones
      38-88-343>345-353-368-372-373-375>380-548. (See LAXNPWLOX).
     Extreme Heat Watch in effect from Tuesday morning through
      Thursday evening for zones
      38-88-341>345-347>358-362-366>376-378>383-548. (See LAXNPWLOX).
     Wind Advisory in effect until 8 AM PDT this morning for zones
      349-351. (See LAXNPWLOX).
PZ...Small Craft Advisory in effect until 5 AM PDT Friday for
      zones 645-670-673-676. (See LAXMWWLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...Rorke
AVIATION...Rorke
MARINE...Phillips
SYNOPSIS...RM/KL/SR

weather.gov/losangeles

Experimental Graphical Hazardous Weather Outlook at:
https://www.weather.gov/erh/ghwo?wfo=lox

NWS Los Angeles (LOX) Office