687
FXUS66 KLOX 101057
AFDLOX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard CA
257 AM PST Tue Nov 10 2026

.SYNOPSIS...10/257 AM.

Warm and dry conditions with sunny skies are expected at least
through mid week, with breezy northeast winds at times. A
noticeable cooling trend will start Thursday, with temperatures
falling to near normal by Friday. Rain is likely at some point
between late this week and early next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TDY-THU)...10/257 AM.

Very little to talk about as the stretch of very pleasant if
unexciting weather continues.

Today and Wednesday srn CA will be covered by a ridge with hgts
around 584 dam. Offshore flow from both the north and east will
continue through the period. Skies will be clear through the
two day period save for a few low clouds across western SBA county
each morning. The offshore push will be a little stronger this
morning than on Monday and there will be some canyon winds. The
winds will strongest across portions of the Central Coast where
they could approach advisory levels. The stronger offshore flow
will likely bring a few degrees of warming to the csts and vlys
today. The offshore flow will also bring cooler air into the
interior. Max temps will end up in the 80s or 10 to 12 degrees
above normal. Wednesday will be quite similar to today just a
little less offshore flow - so a little less winds and a degree or
two of cooling.

A large trof will approach the west coast on Thursday and will
push the ridge to the east and hgts will fall through the day
reaching 568 dam by the afternoon. The offshore flow will also
flip to onshore. Most areas will cool 2 to 4 degrees, but the
Central Coast which will be closest to the approaching trof will
see 4 to 6 degrees of cooling. Despite the cooling max temps will
remain about 8 degrees above normal.

.LONG TERM (FRI-MON)...10/257 AM.

Still not much if any clarity on the xtnd fcst. At least three
large systems will smash into the PACNW. The first is slated to
pinch off an upper low that is fcst to move into Baja during the
day Friday. There now seems like there might be a lull between
systems Sat and Maybe Sun and then maybe a stronger system
sometime Monday thru Wednesday. There has not been much run to run
consistency with the mdls and even less agreement between
individual mdls so confidence really remains quite low.

Some rain seems very likely sometime Friday and Saturday although
amounts will probably be on the light side. There does seem to be
some consensus that Sunday will be the day least likely to have
rain although there still is some chc. The details on the system
early next week are still quite fuzzy but now it looks like it
will be the biggest and wettest.

Hopefully the forecast will begin to coalesce later today or
tomorrow.

&&

.AVIATION...10/1057Z.

At 0827Z at KLAX, there was a surface based inversion with a top
near 1200 feet and a temperature of 25 deg C.

High confidence in VFR TAFs for all sites., except for KSMX where
there is a 20 percent chc of LIFR conds 12Z-15Z.

KLAX...High confidence in TAF. Any east wind component will be AOB
5kt.

KBUR...High confidence in TAF.

&&

.MARINE...10/257 AM.

For the Outer Waters, moderate to high confidence in current
forecast. Seas across the outer waters are beginning to subside,
now in the 10 to 12 foot range. Small Craft Advisories were
extended through noon today to account for some wind gusts up to
25 knots and seas lingering near 10 feet. Seas will remain
slightly below SCA levels this afternoon through Wednesday.
Expecting 10+ ft seas to return Thursday through at least Sunday,
with models indicating potential for wave heights between 15 to 20
ft waves. At this time the peak looks to be Saturday afternoon
into early Sunday.

For the Inner Waters north of Point Sal, moderate to high
confidence in current forecast, with conds likely to remain just
below SCA levels through late tonight. On Wednesday, high
confidence in winds and seas remaining below SCA levels. SCA level
seas could return as early as Thursday night, increasing into the
weekend.

For the Inner Waters south of Point Conception, moderate to high
confidence in current forecast. Winds and seas are expected to
remain below SCA levels for the southern Inner Waters through
Thursday. SCA winds will then be possible at times Friday night
through Sunday, mainly across the Santa Barbara Channel during the
afternoon to evening hours.

There is a chance of showers sometime from Thursday night into
the weekend across the coastal waters.

&&

.BEACHES...09/800 PM.

High tides will peak during the morning hours through Tuesday
between 7.0 to 7.4 feet (MLLW). At the same time, a large and long
period W-NW swell peaked in the waters today and will gradually
subside through Tuesday. The waves remain large enough through
around noon on Tuesday to produce hazardous conditions, along with
the high tides. There is a continued risk of moderate coastal
flooding along with dangerous swimming conditions. If you are in
the coastal areas, heed advice from your local officials.

This coastal flooding event will differ in several ways from the
past episodes this year. While these tides are high, they are not
nearly as high as the record breaking tides from two weeks ago.
Impacts to harbor areas and Naples Island will generally remain
minor compared to previous events. Shallow flooding risks will
continue in some locations, especially in low- lying walkways,
but of a lesser degree less in severity and coverage.

For the beach-side coastal areas, the swell is from the west to
northwest. Areas like Oceano and Cayucos on the Central Coast,
and the Ventura County coast, have elevated risks of moderate
coastal flooding. Impacts include things like flooded sandy beach
areas, moderate beach erosion, as well as shallow flooding of
beach parking lots and bike paths. Isolated damage is unlikely but
cannot be ruled out especially considering the extent of beach
erosion we have already seen - which limits the natural protective
buffer between the ocean and coastal infrastructure. However, the
swell is now subsiding and so the impacts are likely diminishing
as well, although the Tuesday morning high tide may produce
additional risks.

For the Central Coast, Ventura and LA County Coasts, a High Surf
Advisory and Coastal Flood Advisory is in effect through noon on
Tuesday. Otherwise, a Coastal Flood Advisory is in effect for
Catalina Island and a Beach Hazards Statement is in effect for
Santa Barbara Southern Coast through Tuesday morning.

Additional products will likely be needed through the week with a
heightened risk this weekend. Stay tuned for updates.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...Coastal Flood Advisory in effect until noon PST today for
      zones 87-340-346-354-362-366. (See LAXCFWLOX).
     High Surf Advisory in effect until noon PST today for zones
      340-346-354-366. (See LAXCFWLOX).
     Beach Hazards Statement in effect until noon PST today for
      zones 349-350. (See LAXCFWLOX).
PZ...Small Craft Advisory in effect until 3 AM PST early this
      morning for zone 645. (See LAXMWWLOX).
     Small Craft Advisory in effect until noon PST today for zones
      670-673-676. (See LAXMWWLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...Rorke
AVIATION...Rorke
MARINE...Ciliberti
BEACHES...RK/Lewis/KL/DB/CC
SYNOPSIS...Ciliberti

weather.gov/losangeles

Experimental Graphical Hazardous Weather Outlook at:
https://www.weather.gov/erh/ghwo?wfo=lox

NWS Los Angeles (LOX) Office