022
FXUS66 KLOX 081831
AFDLOX

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard CA
1031 AM PST Sun Feb 8 2026

.SYNOPSIS...08/256 AM.

The warming trend will continue today, then a weak storm system
will move into the region and bring cooler temperatures and a
chance of precipitation between Tuesday and Wednesday night. A
warming trend is possible for late next week, then a cool, wet,
and unsettled weather pattern will likely set up from the 15th to
the 21st.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TDY-TUE)...08/923 AM.

***UPDATE***

The forecast is well on-track, and no changes have been made to
the ongoing forecast.

***From Previous Discussion***

Chamber of Commerce day on tap for today with a ridge nosing in
from the west bringing 580 dam hgts and 2 to 4 mb of offshore flow
at the sfc. Look for sunny skies light offshore winds and max
temps rising to the mid 70s to lower 80s across the csts/vlys.
These max temps are 10 to 15 degrees over normal.

Offshore flow continues on Monday, esp from the north. There is a
30 percent chc that there will be a need for a wind advisory
through the I-5 corridor in the morning. The ridge overhead
flattens out as it pushed down by fast moving trof moving through
the north of the state. The upper flow will turn almost due w to e
and will bring in mostly cloudy skies to SLO and the northern
portion of SBA counties. Since the hgts do not fall that much and
the offshore flow remains, went above the official forecast and
only cooled temps a few degrees across the VTA/LA csts vlys.

An upper low will approach the Bay Area on Tuesday and the flow
over Srn CA will turn to the SW. The offshore flow will switch to
onshore and mid and high level clouds will overspread the area
making it a cloudy day. The official forecast based on all of the
ensemble members bring a chc of rain to the Central Coast in the
morning and then spreads that chc down through SBA county and VTA
mtns in the afternoon. Looking at the hier rez mdls it looks like
this forecast might be 6 to 8 hours too fast. Will get a better
grip on rain timing when the hier rex mdls get an extra 12 to 18
hours to analyze this system. Rainfall amounts, if they do occur,
will be on the light side. The clouds, onshore flow and lower hgts
will all combine to lower max temps 5 to 10 degrees over SLO/SBA
counties and 10 to 15 degrees over LA/VTA counties. Max temps will
mostly be in the 60s across the lower elevations.

A better (50 to 60 percent chc) of rain will occur across all o
the area Tuesday night into Wed morning. Rainfall amounts for the
csts/vlys/cstl slopes during this time could range from a quarter
inch north of Pt Conception to a tenth or two south of Pt
Conception.

.LONG TERM (WED-SAT)...08/254 AM.

On Wednesday the system (either a trof or weak upper low) will
move to the SE and over Srn CA. It will bring clouds and a chance
of rain through the day. This system does not have that much
moisture to work with and rainfall totals are forecast to be under
a quarter inch. Max temps will not change much from Tuesday and
will remain in the 60s for most of the area.

Not the best mdl agreement on the Thursday fcst with a number of
ensemble members keeping an upper low and rain in the area while
many others shower a dry ridge. The ensemble based forecast mixes
all of this together and come out with a partly to mostly cloudy
day with a slight chc of showers and a warming trend. Its likely
that all of these things will not occur together and will wait for
a little better agreement to see if the day will be mostly sunny
and warmer or cloudier with some rain and little change in temps.

There is better agreement that Friday will feature a weak ridge
with mostly clear skies and about 3 degrees of warming which will
bring most max temps up into the upper 60s or lower 70s.

Starting Saturday and persisting well into the week of the 15th as
the storm window opens and series of storms will likely roll
through the area. Rain will be possible on any of the days from
Saturday the 14th through Friday the 20th. Several of these
systems could bring significant rainfall. It will take at least
several more days to pin down the exact timing of these systems so
stay tuned. It is likely that some of these will be coldest
storms of the season so far with snow levels down to 4000 or even
lower with plenty of snow.

&&

.AVIATION...08/1830Z.

At 1751Z at KLAX, there was no marine layer or inversion.

High confidence in the current forecast. There is a 15% chance of
brief IFR-MVFR cigs KLGB between 13Z-17Z Mon, and a 10% chance
for KLAX. There is a 25% chance of LIFR-IFR cigs developing at
KPRB sometime between 12Z-18Z Mon.

KLAX...High confidence in TAF, except for a 10% chance of
BKN004-BKN012 cigs developing briefly between 12Z-17Z. Any
northeasterly winds are expected to be will be less than 7 knots.

KBUR...High confidence in TAF.

&&

.MARINE...08/724 AM.

Moderate to high confidence in the current forecast. Less
confidence exists in the swell forecast. Higher confidence exists
in the wind forecast.

For the waters southwest through northwest of the Channel Islands,
SCA conditions are likely (60-80 percent chance) through much of
the week. There are a few periods where the swell and wind may
drop off, but winds and seas will likely remain near hazardous
levels to small craft. Local GALE force gusts will likely develop
from late this afternoon through Monday morning, but there areal
extent will not be large enough to warrant a Gale Warning being
issued. There is a moderate to high (40-50 percent) chance that
GALES could become more widespread, especially this evening.

Inside the southern California bight and for the nearshore waters
along the Central Coast, there is a 40-60 percent chance of SCA
conditions this afternoon and tonight, highest for the nearshore
waters along the Central Coast and into the western fringes of the
southern California bight. There is a lesser (30-50 percent) chance
of SCA level winds on Monday, but chances will rise again to a
40-60 percent chance on Tuesday evening, and increasing further
for Wednesday and Thursday to a 50-70 percent chance, highest for
the nearshore waters along the Central Coast.

Marine conditions may be poor for the upcoming weekend with rain,
widespread hazardous seas, and gusty winds. Though outside of the
forecast period, there is a moderate chance of GALES early next
week.

&&

.BEACHES...08/724 AM.

Remnant swell energy will continue to bring marginal high surf to
Southland beaches this morning. Elevated surf will likely continue
this week. There is a moderate (30-40 percent) chance that a high
surf advisory could be reissued for west and northwest shores
between Tuesday night and Wednesday night with a storm system
dropping into the region. A much colder and strong storm is
expected over next weekend with a higher potential high surf.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...High Surf Advisory in effect until noon PST today for zones
      354-362-366. (See LAXCFWLOX).
PZ...Small Craft Advisory in effect until 6 PM PST Monday for zone
      645. (See LAXMWWLOX).
     Small Craft Advisory in effect until 3 AM PST Tuesday for
      zones 670-673-676. (See LAXMWWLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...Rorke/Cohen
AVIATION...Schoenfeld
MARINE...Hall
BEACHES...Hall
SYNOPSIS...Gomberg

weather.gov/losangeles

Experimental Graphical Hazardous Weather Outlook at:
https://www.weather.gov/erh/ghwo?wfo=lox

NWS Los Angeles (LOX) Office