794
FXUS66 KLOX 021754
AFDLOX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard CA
954 AM PST Fri Jan 2 2026

.SYNOPSIS...02/939 AM.

Another storm system arrive Saturday bringing rain and high
elevation snow through Sunday along with some gusty winds at
times. Broader troughing over the West will keep a cooler weather
pattern in place into next week with cool days and cold nights.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TDY-SUN)...02/953 AM.

***UPDATE***

Moisture moving up from Mexico is generating scattered light
showers across the area today but otherwise it will be cloudy and
cool today ahead of the next system coming in Saturday with
lingering showers into Sunday and Monday. Models are still
indicating the heavier amounts will be mostly from the western
Ventura Mountains up through SB and SLO Counties while the rest of
the area receives mostly light to locally moderate rain through
that period and rain amounts in the 1-2 inch range.

***From Previous Discussion***

Fog should mix out by late morning, then cyclonic flow should
start to develop as the next storm system, sitting near 40N and
136N, approaches the region. Rain will spread over the area
between tonight and Saturday night. With high-resolution multi-
model ensembles and AI ensemble members of the EPS and GEFS
indicating almost all of the solutions with rain, PoPs were nudged
to categorical levels over most of the area for Saturday, and
push higher than NBM values through Sunday. Rainfall amounts range
mostly remain unchanged with 1.00 to 3.00 inches being common
across the coast and valleys with up to 3.00 to 6.00 inches in the
foothills and mountains. Rainfall rates with the system will most
likely range between 0.25 to 0.50 inch/hour, but local rates up
to 0.50 to 0.75 inch/hour are likely, especially in the foothills
and mountains. With rates approaching levels of concern for the
recent burn scars, a flash flood watch may need to be considered
later today when the timing and amounts become a little more firm.

Snow levels will remain above 6500 feet for the entirety of the
storm, but a rain/snow mix could drop down to 6000 feet,
especially on Sunday night when the latest model solutions
suggest 700 mb temperatures dropping to -4 to -5 degrees Celsius.
Snowfall accumulations from 2 to 6 inches will likely occur at
the resort level (above 7500 feet). Local amounts up to 9 to 12
inches are possible on the highest mountain peaks.

Gusty southerly winds will begin to develop today and tonight
across the region as the surface pressure pattern starts to
tighten. High-resolution multi-model ensembles continue to
suggest the most impactful winds across the mountains and
foothills north of Point Conception. Wind advisories have been
added for the higher elevations of the Ventura and Santa Barbara
County mountains, interior San Luis Obispo County, and the Santa
Lucia mountains from this afternoon or this evening through
Saturday evening. There is a high chance that wind advisories
could be expanded into the Central Coast and the Santa Ynez and
southern portion of the Salinas Valley. EPS ensemble members
suggest wind gust means sitting just shy of advisory levels, but
high-resolution multi-model ensembles give a high-to-likely
(40-60 percent) chance of low-end wind advisory level gusts. Given
the wet soils in place, trees could be downed by the winds,
especially in the Santa Lucia range where wind gusts could be the
strongest as the frontal boundary approaches late tonight and into
Saturday morning.

.LONG TERM (MON-THU)...02/248 AM.

The forecast ensembles favor another storm system moving over the
region between Monday and Tuesday. This system looks to be colder
and drier, but there will likely be more of a convective element
involved with this storm. A difluent flow pattern developing
aloft in some of the medium-range deterministic solutions and 500
mb temperatures dropping to below -25 degrees Celsius could bring
isolated thunderstorms with brief heavy downpours, small hail,
and gusty winds into the mix. Snow levels could lower down to 5000
feet with this storm system, as well. Outside of any convective
storms, rainfall amounts should be light with most areas seeing
0.25 to 0.50 inch of rainfall.

A cold air mass will likely settle into the region for the first
full week of 2026. High temperatures across most coastal and
valleys area will be the upper 50s and 60s with frost or freeze
conditions possible in some of the valley areas. Overnight low
temperatures could dip into the 30s across the valleys and some
portions of the interior coastal sections as almost a due
northerly flow pattern develops. CMC ensembles members suggest
temperatures dipping into the 20s out in the Antelope Valley late
next week. For now, NBM values are in the forecast, but stay
tuned as this is the developing story.

&&

.AVIATION...02/1604Z.

At 16Z at KLAX, there was no marine layer.

Isolated but light showers could form anywhere through this
evening - low confidence on timing and coverage. The next storm
system which will bring steady moderate rain later tonight and/or
Saturday - moderate confidence in timing (+/- 4 hours) and
ceilings (+/- 1 flight category).

KLAX...Moderate confidence in flight category forecast with
periods of -RA and MVFR-VFR common. Brief IFR is possible during
peak rain of rain (20Z Saturday to 08Z Sunday). Moderate
confidence that winds will stay either east, southeast, or south
(with little to no west component) through 03Z Monday. Low
confidence on wind speed.

KBUR...Moderate confidence in flight category forecast with
periods of -RA and MVFR-VFR common. Brief IFR is possible during
peak rain of rain (20Z Saturday to 08Z Sunday).

&&

.MARINE...02/747 AM.

A storm system will affect the region this afternoon through the
weekend, bringing periods of rain, low visibility, gusty south
winds, and a remote risk of strong thunderstorms and waterspouts.
Although there will be breaks in the hazardous conditions,
mariners should consider staying in safe harbor through at least
the weekend.

High confidence in south to southeast wind gusts of 30-40 knots
and steep seas from San Miguel Island and northward through the
Central Coast forming later today and lasting into early Saturday.
Gale Warnings are in effect. High confidence in southeast wind
gusts of 20-30 knots for the rest of the waters forming by tonight
and lasting into Thursday. Another round of south winds, about 5
knots weaker, will push through the area on Sunday.

Another storm system will likely affect the waters Monday through
Tuesday or Wednesday, but low confidence on the details.

&&

.BEACHES...02/747 AM.

Abnormally large high tides between 7.0 and 7.5 feet MLLW will
occur each morning through Sunday, roughly between 8 am and 11 am.
A mixture of south wind swells and a longer period west swell will
combine with these tides to elevate the risk of coastal flooding.
Similar events in the past suggest that any impacts will be minor,
but folks should plan for some shallow flooding of normally dry
beach areas (including bike paths and walkways) as well as
vulnerable harbor areas. Rain is also expected at this time,
which will enhance the risk for isolated impactful flood due to
the combination of outflow from streams and storm drains. This is
especially the case for areas like Naples Island.

Elevated surf and strong currents are also expected, especially
this weekend. While conditions could briefly touch High Surf
criteria, the current plan (which may change if conditions
warrant and upgrade) is to keep the Beach Hazards Statement in
place to handle these elements.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...Beach Hazards Statement in effect through Sunday afternoon
      for zones 87-340-346-349-350-354-362-366. (See LAXCFWLOX).
     Wind Advisory in effect from 4 PM this afternoon to 6 PM PST
      Saturday for zone 342. (See LAXNPWLOX).
     Wind Advisory in effect from 8 PM this evening to 6 PM PST
      Saturday for zones 344-345. (See LAXNPWLOX).
     Wind Advisory in effect from 1 PM this afternoon to 6 PM PST
      Saturday for zones 353-376-377. (See LAXNPWLOX).
PZ...Small Craft Advisory in effect until 8 PM PST this evening
      for zone 645. (See LAXMWWLOX).
     Gale Warning in effect from 8 PM this evening to 3 AM PST
      Saturday for zone 645. (See LAXMWWLOX).
     Small Craft Advisory in effect until 8 AM PST Saturday for
      zone 650. (See LAXMWWLOX).
     Small Craft Advisory in effect until 6 PM PST this evening
      for zones 670-673. (See LAXMWWLOX).
     Gale Warning in effect from 6 PM this evening to 3 AM PST
      Saturday for zones 670-673. (See LAXMWWLOX).
     Small Craft Advisory in effect from 9 PM this evening to 8 AM
      PST Saturday for zone 676. (See LAXMWWLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...MW/Hall
AVIATION...Kittell
MARINE...Kittell
BEACHES...Kittell
SYNOPSIS...MW

weather.gov/losangeles

Experimental Graphical Hazardous Weather Outlook at:
https://www.weather.gov/erh/ghwo?wfo=lox

NWS Los Angeles (LOX) Office