902
FXUS66 KLOX 291419
AFDLOX

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard CA
719 AM PDT Fri May 29 2026

UPDATED MARINE SECTION

.SYNOPSIS...29/243 AM.

Cool but dry today with breezy onshore winds. Warming and drying
Saturday through next week, but a return of low clouds and fog
will moderate coastal temperatures. Sunday and Monday will likely
be the warmest with highs 5 to 10 degrees above normal. Locally
gusty north winds over the weekend.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TDY-SUN)...29/233 AM.

Forecast-wise for the short term, forecast looks very much on
track. Any lingering showers should end by sunrise Friday.

For Friday through Sunday, the weather will return to a more late
May pattern. With the ridge building overhead, skies should
generally remain mostly clear. However, there will likely be some
coastal stratus/fog, but the areal coverage each night will
diminish. The combination of the flat upper ridge, less marine
influence and weaker onshore flow will allow for a very nice
warming trend. By Sunday, coastal areas will have highs in the 70s
while the valley/interior sections will have highs in the 80s to
lower 90s (about 5-10 degrees above seasonal normals).

One thing to watch this weekend will be the winds. As this pattern
develops, northerly offshore pressure gradients will develop. So,
there will be gusty northwesterly winds in the usual spots (Santa
Ynez Range, I-5 Corridor and the Central Coast). At this time,
there is about a 20-30% chance of winds reaching advisory levels.

.LONG TERM (MON-THU)...29/309 AM.

The ridge of high pressure that will start to build over the
weekend looks poised to continue to build through the middle of
next week. This will cause temperatures over the interior
mountains and deserts to steadily climb through most of next week.
Wednesday and Thursday look the warmest when 500 millibar heights
peak at 585-588 decameters. Highs in the 90-100 range look all
but certain. Over the coastal side of the mountains, Monday looks
warm with near neutral onshore pressure gradients, and some
northerly flow. Highs between 82 and 92 look favorable inland of
the beaches, which is 5 to 10 degrees above normal. Heat
Advisories and Warnings however are unlikely. The majority of
ensemble solutions show onshore pressure gradients strengthening
Tuesday through Thursday. Being June Gloom season, one has to
expect at least modest marine layer cooling influence and
probably some low clouds, which will moderate the high temperature
potential. So the mostly likely scenario calls for the coastal
and valley areas to cool some Tuesday through Thursday while the
interior areas warm up. This would increase the west to east
temperature gradient and further enhance what should be some gusty
onshore winds over the interior. There are about 10 percent of
the ensembles however that do not increase the onshore flow and
bring very warm conditions to the valleys. This is the reasonable
worst-case but unlikely scenario.

&&

.AVIATION...29/1010Z.

At 10Z at KLAX, there was no marine layer or inversion.

High confidence that -SHRA will end by 12Z. Low confidence on
timing and coverage of ceilings through the day, but moderate
confidence that any ceilings will stay in the MVFR and VFR range.
Any clearing that happens this morning, will likely lead to SCT-
BKN025-040 in the afternoon. Gustier than usual onshore winds
likely this afternoon and evening. IFR-MVFR Marine layer clouds
likely to return Saturday morning at all coastal sites and KPRB
except KSBA.

KLAX...High confidence in -SHRA ending by 12Z. Low confidence in
ceiling timing, with chances through the evening hours. Moderate
confidence that any ceilings will stay in the MVR-VFR category.
Moderate confidence in MVFR marine layer ceilings returning
Saturday morning. High confidence in any easterly winds staying
under 06 knots through at least Saturday.

KBUR...High confidence in -SHRA ending by 12Z. Low confidence in
ceiling timing, with chances through the evening hours. Moderate
confidence that any ceilings will stay in the MVR-VFR category.
Moderate confidence in MVFR marine layer ceilings returning
Saturday morning.

&&

.MARINE...29/717 AM.

High confidence in conditions staying below Small Craft Advisory
(SCA) through early this afternoon, with a long period northwest
swell and short period west wind swell. High confidence in SCA
conditions expanding through the weekend.

For the outer waters from the Central Coast to San Nicolas Island,
at least SCA conditions likely starting Friday afternoon and
lasting for the foreseeable future. Chances for Gales as well,
Friday Night (20%), Saturday Night (50%) and Wednesday Night
(60%). The nearshore waters likely to see SCA conditions each
afternoon and evening through Saturday.

For the Santa Barbara Channel, SCA conditions are likely for the
western portion through Saturday. For all other waters, SCA
conditions unlikely through at least early next week, but choppy
seas are likely each afternoon and evening.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.
PZ...Small Craft Advisory in effect from 3 PM this afternoon to 3
      AM PDT Saturday for zones 645-650. (See LAXMWWLOX).
     Small Craft Advisory in effect from 3 PM this afternoon to 9
      AM PDT Monday for zones 670-673-676. (See LAXMWWLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...Thompson/RK
AVIATION...RK
MARINE...RK/DB
SYNOPSIS...RK

weather.gov/losangeles

Experimental Graphical Hazardous Weather Outlook at:
https://www.weather.gov/erh/ghwo?wfo=lox

NWS Los Angeles (LOX) Office