124
FXUS66 KLOX 101826
AFDLOX

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard CA
1126 AM PDT Sat Oct 10 2026

.SYNOPSIS...10/1054 AM.

Tropical Storm Rachel is expected to track well south of Los
Angeles County, but moderate to damaging coastal flooding impacts
are very likely to continue into at least early next week.
Periods of light to moderate rain/showers and a low chance of
thunderstorms exists into early next week, peaking Sunday.
Temperatures will cool region wide through the weekend and into
early next week. Another warm up with the potential for offshore
flow is likely Wednesday into the weekend.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TDY-MON)...10/1054 AM.

Tropical Storm Rachel is still forecast to track well south of
Los Angeles. The most significant impacts over the short term
will almost certainly be due to coastal flooding. Please refer to
Beaches section as well as CFWLOX for further details on coastal
flooding issues.

An upper level low pressure system siting about 450 miles
southwest of Los Angeles will be responsible for quite a bit of
cooling today thanks to cooler air aloft as well as pretty
widespread cloud coverage and some increasing onshore flow. There
remains a slight chance of showers and a 5-10% chance of
thunderstorms across the area through this evening, mainly focused
south and east of Point Conception. Best chances exist in Los
Angeles and Ventura Counties, with lower chances westward. However
as the upper low moves to the east tonight, it will tap into more
of Rachel`s moisture as it approaches the northern Baja
California Coast, bringing a likely chance of fairly steady light
to moderate rain across Los Angeles and Ventura Counties through
Sunday morning and into the afternoon hours. Another upper level
low will drop down through California on the heels of the previous
low, which will turn our steadier rainfall into a more showery
pattern Sunday evening through Monday.

As far as rainfall goes, it appears the majority of our rainfall
totals will come from the "first" system from late tonight into
Sunday afternoon. In general we are expecting light to moderate
rainfall totals and rates. Further details on the rain are below.

We are also expecting fairly breezy conditions for much of
southwest California, especially in the mountains and deserts of
eastern Los Angeles County. There will be a very sharp uptick in
onshore pressure gradients Sunday morning along with the upper
level influence of the second upper low dropping down south. A
wind advisory has been issued for the San Gabriel Mountains as
well as the Antelope Valley for Sunday, with gustiest winds
expected during the afternoon through late evening hours.

Otherwise, much cooler temps will bring a relief to many after a
long stretch of very hot weather.

Some details to note:
     - PWAT anomalies, associated with moisture from Rachel, will
       be 150-300% of normal.
     - PWATs will decrease on Monday.
     - There will continue to be a 5-10% chance of thunderstorms
       through Monday.
     - Rain totals today through Tuesday:
          - LA County: generally 0.25-1.00 inches except 1.50-2.50
            inches over the San Gabriel Mountains (locally 3.00).
          - Ventura County: generally 0.10-0.50 inches with
            locally higher amounts possible over the mountains.
          - SBA/SLO Counties: generally under 0.25 inches.
     - Rainfall rates: generally under 0.25"/hour, but local rates
       up to around 0.50"/hour will be possible for LA County.
       Some recent higher resolution guidance suggests some rates
       in the Eastern San Gabriels may slightly exceed
       0.50"/hour.
     - LA and Ventura Counties are under Marginal to Slight Risk
       for Excessive Rainfall on Sunday.

As has been stressed over the last few days, any changes in the
track of Tropical Storm Rachel could bring noticeable changes to
the expected rainfall for the area. So, stay tuned for the latest
details.

.LONG TERM (TUE-FRI)...10/1054 AM.

Wednesday will be more or less be a transition day from the
cooler, active pattern to a warming and drying trend which will
likely continue into the weekend. An upper level ridge of high
pressure will build over the area and by Thursday we could see 500
mb heights reach 585-590 dam. Offshore flow is also poised to
develop and these features will combine to bring this rapid
warming and drying to southwest California. Widespread moderate
heat risk is likely for the coasts and coastal valleys Thursday
through the weekend, with low chances of major heat risk. The
magnitude of temperatures will likely depend on the magnitude of
the offshore flow, but a weak to at least locally moderate Santa
Ana Wind event is likely.

&&

.AVIATION...10/1824Z.

At 1724Z at KLAX, the marine layer was 1000 feet deep. The top of
the inversion was 1500 ft with a temp of 23 degrees Celsius.

Moderate confidence in TAFs. For sites north of Point Conception,
timing of flight category changes could be off by +/- 3 hours.

For sites south of Point Conception, a few showers may occur
between 19-22Z today. Then rain timing in TAF may be off by +/- 3
hours, with heavier periods of rain possible. Highest chances for
rain will be Sunday morning. There is a 10% chance of tstorms
through the period.

KLAX...Moderate confidence in TAF. A few showers are possible
between 19-22Z today. Otherwise, timing of showers this evening
through tomorrow could be +/- 3 hours of current forecast, with
heavier periods of rain possible. There is a 10% chance of
tstorms through the period. Bkn015-025 may be associated with
rain. No significant easterly wind component is expected.

KBUR...Moderate confidence in TAF. A few showers are possible
between 19-22Z today. Otherwise, timing of showers this evening
through tomorrow could be +/- 3 hours of current forecast, with
heavier periods of rain possible. There is a 10% chance of
tstorms through the period. Bkn015-025 may be associated with
rain.

&&

.MARINE...10/919 AM.

For the Outer Waters, moderate to high confidence in current
forecast. High confidence in a combination of at least SCA level
winds and seas during this period, however lower confidence in
winds Sunday. Winds will increase to Small Craft Advisory (SCA)
levels today, potentially lasting into Sunday night. On Sunday,
there is a 30% chance of Gale Force winds early in the morning,
then there is a 40% chance that winds drop below SCA levels Sunday
evening through Monday. However, steep seas of 10+ feet will
build this afternoon and last into early Monday morning. On
Tuesday, there is a 50% chance of SCA level winds around Point
Conception with winds remaining below SCA levels elsewhere.

For the Inner Waters north of Point Sal, high confidence in
current forecast. Winds and seas are expected to remain below SCA
levels through this morning. From this afternoon through Tuesday,
SCA level winds are expected (mainly during the afternoon and
evening hours) with seas approaching SCA levels on Sunday and
Monday.

For the Inner Waters south of Point Conception, moderate to high
confidence in current forecast. Through this afternoon, high
confidence in winds and seas remaining below SCA levels. From
this evening through Sunday evening, there is a 60-80% chance of
SCA level winds. For Monday through Wednesday, high confidence in
winds and seas remaining below SCA levels for most of the southern
Inner Waters. The only exception will be the western half of the
Santa Barbara Channel with a 50% chance of SCA level winds late
Tuesday afternoon through Tuesday evening.

Periods of light to moderate showers are likely today through
Tuesday, with highest confidence for Sunday-Monday. There is a 10%
chance of thunderstorms during the same time frame. While showers
or thunderstorms are possible anywhere, highest chances exist
south of Point Conception.

Long period swell from the west and the south are affecting the
coastal waters, and can create a confused sea state. This can
make boating more challenging and dangerous, especially for small
vessels.

&&

.BEACHES...10/918 AM.

A Coastal Flood Warning is in effect for the beaches of Los
Angeles County (including the Malibu Coast and Catalina Island)
through 3 PM Sunday. Highest impacts are likely for vulnerable
south-facing beaches, especially Long Beach and Malibu, with
damaging sea-water flooding of structures and beach roadways
likely near times of high tide. High tides are expected to range
between 7.3 and 7.5 feet this weekend.

There is the potential for additive factors to the water levels
on Sunday as some computer model projections are showing lower
atmospheric pressure values (somewhere between 995 and 1005 mb)
due to Rachel passing to our south and east, as well as the
possibility of enhanced southwest to west onshore winds over the
coastal waters near the time of Sunday morning high tide. There is
still some uncertainty in these additive factors due to the
timing of Rachel`s track in relation to the high tides on Sunday
morning. But we can expect water levels to be at least 7.3 to 7.5
feet across LA county during the Sunday morning high tide, with
the potential for water levels to reach 8 feet if the low
pressure/onshore wind components materialize near time of high
tide.

As a result, Sunday has the highest risk for damaging coastal
flooding (especially Long Beach and Malibu areas). The Coastal
Flood Warning may be extended past Sunday, or converted to a
Coastal FLood Advisory through Tuesday. High surf of 5 to 8 feet
is also expected with locally higher sets possible Sunday, along
with strong/dangerous rip currents.

For beaches from Ventura County northward, minor to moderate coastal
flooding will be likely near times of high tide as well as
periods of elevated to high surf and strong rip currents.
Depending on the track of Rachel, there is a small chance (20
percent) that Ventura County will need to be upgraded to a
Coastal Flood Warning. Please see CFWLOX for additional details.

A very complex series of swells from the south, west, and
northwest will impact our coastlines into at least early next
week. Energy from Tropical Storm Rachel, southern hemisphere
swells, northwest swells, and local wind swells will add up with
each other to produce the aforementioned coastal impacts. Please
continue to monitor the forecast.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...Coastal Flood Warning in effect until 3 PM PDT Sunday for
      zones 87-362-366. (See LAXCFWLOX).
     Coastal Flood Advisory in effect from 3 PM Sunday to 2 PM PDT
      Tuesday for zones 87-362-366. (See LAXCFWLOX).
     Beach Hazards Statement in effect through late tonight for
      zones 340-346. (See LAXCFWLOX).
     Coastal Flood Advisory in effect from 6 AM Sunday to 10 PM
      PDT Monday for zones 340-346-349-350. (See LAXCFWLOX).
     High Surf Advisory in effect from 6 AM Sunday to 10 PM PDT
      Monday for zones 340-346. (See LAXCFWLOX).
     Beach Hazards Statement in effect through Tuesday afternoon
      for zones 349-350. (See LAXCFWLOX).
     Coastal Flood Advisory in effect until 2 PM PDT Tuesday for
      zone 354. (See LAXCFWLOX).
     High Surf Advisory in effect from 6 AM to 10 PM PDT Sunday
      for zones 354-362-366. (See LAXCFWLOX).
     Wind Advisory in effect from 5 AM Sunday to 5 AM PDT Monday
      for zones 378>383. (See LAXNPWLOX).
PZ...Small Craft Advisory in effect from 3 PM this afternoon to 3
      AM PDT Sunday for zone 645. (See LAXMWWLOX).
     Small Craft Advisory in effect from 6 PM this evening to 9 PM
      PDT Sunday for zones 650-655-676. (See LAXMWWLOX).
     Small Craft Advisory in effect until 9 PM PDT Monday for
      zones 670-673. (See LAXMWWLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...Lewis/Thompson
AVIATION...KL
MARINE...RAT/KL
BEACHES...Gomberg/Lewis
SYNOPSIS...Lewis

weather.gov/losangeles

Experimental Graphical Hazardous Weather Outlook at:
https://www.weather.gov/erh/ghwo?wfo=lox

NWS Los Angeles (LOX) Office