584
FXUS66 KLOX 151754
AFDLOX

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard CA
1054 AM PDT Fri May 15 2026

UPDATED AVIATION SECTION

.SYNOPSIS...15/854 AM.

Highs today will be near normal, except for above normal across
the deserts. This weekend temperatures will be cooler, followed
by a warming trend starting Monday. Gusty winds are expected at
times along the Central Coast, and across the mountains and
deserts through the weekend, strongest on Saturday. Hazardous seas
will impact the coastal waters over the next several days.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TDY-SUN)...15/859 AM.

***UPDATE***

A 3000 foot marine layer will keep temperatures on the cooler side
through the weekend. The most notable weather impact will be the
northwest winds which will be strongest in the mountains,
southwest Santa Barbara County, and over the coastal waters.
Warning level gusts of around 60 mph are possible in the mountains
Saturday night, while some of the offshore waters could see gusts
to 50kt at times.

***From Previous Discussion***

Overall, latest models exhibit good synoptic agreement through the
short term period. At upper levels, broad northwest flow will
prevail today, then an inside slider will drop into the Great
Basin on Saturday/Sunday. At the surface, moderate onshore flow
will prevail today, followed by moderate to locally strong
northwesterly flow develops tonight through Sunday.

Forecast-wise, main concern in the short term will be the winds,
more specifically the northwesterly winds. Current models remain
very consistent, indicating moderate northerly offshore gradients
and some decent upper level support. So, will expect northwesterly
winds to increase during the day today across the usual spots
(I-5 Corridor, northwestern Antelope Valley and the Santa Ynez
Range) and continue through Sunday (with tonight and Saturday
likely the strongest time period). In these areas, high resolution
ensembles indicated at least a 70% chance of advisory- level
gusts (40-55 MPH) and even a 20% chance of warning-level gusts
(60+ MPH). Additionally, the Central Coast will likely also
experience advisory-level gusts (30-40 MPH) on both Saturday and
Sunday. Future shifts will likely need to issue various wind
products.

Other than the winds, no significant issues are expected. With the
upper level pattern, the marine inversion will remain on the deep
side, but the increasing northwesterly flow will help to limit the
areal extent of the marine layer stratus. So, somewhat low
confidence in the current stratus forecast through the weekend.
Other than any stratus west of the mountains, skies should remain
mostly clear through Sunday.

As for temperatures, will expect near persistence temperatures
today. However for Saturday and Sunday, there will be some
cooling area- wide as the inside slider brings in some colder air
to the region.

.LONG TERM (MON-THU)...15/202 AM.

For the extended, models remain in decent agreement with the upper
level pattern. Broad cyclonic flow is forecast to continue the
period with a gradual increase in H5 heights. However at the
surface, the models differ with the ECMWF and its ensembles
indicate weak diurnal flow while the GFS and its ensembles
indicate persistent weak to moderate onshore flow.

Forecast-wise, either model forecast indicates continued dry
conditions for the region through next week. There will be some
amount of marine layer stratus clouds each day, but the areal
coverage will be at the whims of the surface gradients. Other than
any marine layer stratus, skies should remain mostly clear through
the period.

With this overall pattern, a warming trend can be expected for
the area through the week. However if the ECMWF is correct with
its surface pressure gradients, temperatures west of the mountains
could be warmer than currently forecast.

&&

.AVIATION...15/1752Z.

At 1712Z at KLAX, the marine layer was 3500 ft deep. The top of
the inversion was at 5900 ft with a temperature of 18 C.

High confidence in VFR TAFs for desert airfields (KPMD & KWJF).

Moderate confidence in remaining TAFs. Timing of CIG/VSBY
restrictions may be off +/- 2 hours and flight minimums off by one
category.

KLAX...Moderate confidence in TAF. MVFR CIGs around 025 expected
to clear by 21Z Fri (+/- 1 hour). MVFR CIGs most likely to return
03Z-05Z Sat. CIG heights should arrive 010-20 and will gradually
rise - reaching 2,000ft threshold around 15Z. Subsequent clearing
time should be similar to Today. Good confidence that any east
wind component remains below 7 kts.

KBUR...Moderate confidence in TAF. No wind issues expected.

&&

.MARINE...15/758 AM.

GALE WARNINGS are in effect for the inner waters along the
Central Coast, all the outer waters, and the Santa Barbara Channel
this weekend. Please refer to MWWLOX for further details.

For the outer waters from the Central Coast to San Nicolas
Island, high confidence forecast. Winds will continue to increase
to GALE FORCE levels today, becoming high-end, STRONG GALES over
the weekend. Local gusts may reach STORM FORCE late Saturday
afternoon into evening. SCA level seas will continue to build
through the weekend, becoming large 10-18 foot steep seas.

For the inner waters along the Central Coast, Small Craft
Advisory (SCA) level seas will continue through the weekend.
Winds will increase to high-end, STRONG GALE FORCE levels this
afternoon and continue through Sunday evening.

For the inner waters south of Point Conception, The GALE WATCH
has been converted to a GALE WARNING for the Santa Barbara Channel
for Saturday afternoon through late night, with an enhanced risk of
GALE FORCE winds again Sunday afternoon and evening. For the
southern inner waters adjacent to the L.A. Coast, SCA level winds
are likely across the western portion each afternoon and evening
over the weekend. Localized GALE Force wind gusts are possible
Saturday evening near Anacapa Island.

These dangerous sea conditions could capsize or damage small and
large vessels. Mariners should adjust plans NOW to remain in safe
harbor.

&&

.BEACHES...15/127 AM.

A combination of strong winds, large seas, and moderately high
evening high tides may lead to high surf with coastal flooding
possible this weekend. High Surf advisories and Beach Hazard
statements have been issued across the entire coastline. Please
refer to CFWLOX for more details for your area.

In general, hazardous surfing and swimming conditions are
expected. Minor beach erosion and coastal flooding is possible,
mainly during the evening high tides.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...High Surf Advisory in effect from 3 PM this afternoon to 9 AM
      PDT Monday for zones 340-346. (See LAXCFWLOX).
     Wind Advisory in effect from 3 PM to 9 PM PDT Saturday for
      zones 340-341-346>348. (See LAXNPWLOX).
     Wind Advisory in effect from 3 PM Saturday to 9 AM PDT Sunday
      for zones 349-351>353. (See LAXNPWLOX).
     Beach Hazards Statement in effect from Saturday afternoon
      through Monday morning for zones 349-350. (See LAXCFWLOX).
     High Surf Advisory in effect from 3 PM Saturday to 9 AM PDT
      Monday for zone 354. (See LAXCFWLOX).
     Beach Hazards Statement in effect from Saturday evening
      through Monday morning for zones 362-366. (See LAXCFWLOX).
     Wind Advisory in effect from 9 PM this evening to 9 AM PDT
      Sunday for zones 376>378. (See LAXNPWLOX).
     Wind Advisory in effect from 9 PM this evening to 11 PM PDT
      Sunday for zones 381-383. (See LAXNPWLOX).
     Wind Advisory in effect from noon to 11 PM PDT Sunday for
      zone 382. (See LAXNPWLOX).
PZ...Small Craft Advisory in effect until 3 PM PDT this afternoon
      for zones 645-673. (See LAXMWWLOX).
     Gale Warning in effect from 3 PM this afternoon to 9 PM PDT
      Sunday for zone 645. (See LAXMWWLOX).
     Gale Warning in effect from noon Saturday to 5 AM PDT Sunday
      for zone 650. (See LAXMWWLOX).
     Gale Watch in effect from Saturday afternoon through late
      Saturday night for zone 655. (See LAXMWWLOX).
     Gale Warning in effect until 3 AM PDT Monday for zone 670. (See LAXMWWLOX).
     Gale Warning in effect from 3 PM this afternoon to 3 AM PDT
      Monday for zone 673. (See LAXMWWLOX).
     Small Craft Advisory in effect until 6 PM PDT this evening
      for zone 676. (See LAXMWWLOX).
     Gale Warning in effect from 6 PM this evening to 3 AM PDT
      Monday for zone 676. (See LAXMWWLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...MW/Schoenfeld
AVIATION...Black
MARINE...Black/Lund
BEACHES...Lund
SYNOPSIS...RS

weather.gov/losangeles

Experimental Graphical Hazardous Weather Outlook at:
https://www.weather.gov/erh/ghwo?wfo=lox

NWS Los Angeles (LOX) Office