061
FXUS66 KLOX 281719
AFDLOX

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard CA
1019 AM PDT Sat Mar 28 2026

UPDATED AVIATION SECTION

.SYNOPSIS...27/1049 PM.

Temperatures will remain above normal through Monday, especially
inland of the beaches, warmest over the weekend. Dense fog will
affect coastal areas each day through Saturday or Sunday. Much
cooler conditions expected Tuesday through the end of the week,
along with gusty winds and a chance of rain at times.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TDY-MON)...28/852 AM.

***UPDATE***

A dense fog advisory was issued through 10am for the Central
Coast. Otherwise, forecast is mostly on tack. Temperatures will
generally be very similar today compared to yesterday, although
this morning is starting out a few degrees cooler according to the
24 hour trends across coasts and coastal valleys. Expecting a
little bit of warming across the interior today and a slight
uptick in onshore flow across the Antelope Valley. Winds are still
likely to remain below advisory levels.

***From Previous Discussion***

Forecast-wise for the short term, no significant issues are
expected. Models continue to indicate upper level high pressure
over northern Mexico will continue to flatten and weakening
through Monday. At the surface, onshore flow will persist with
only minor day-to-day variations in the surface pressure
gradients.

With this pattern, marine layer stratus/fog will continue to
impact the coastal plain through Sunday then extend a bit further
inland Sunday night and Monday morning. Currently, the marine
inversion is near 1000 feet deep, but should gradually deepen
through the weekend. So, there may be some dense fog along the
coast tonight/Saturday morning, but do not anticipate widespread
coverage enough to warrant any advisories. However the night shift
need to monitor that potential. Other than the marine layer
issues, skies should remain mostly clear through the period with
some scattered cirrus clouds from time-to-time.

As for temperatures, warm conditions will persist through Sunday
with temperatures away from the coast still remaining around 10-20
degrees above normal while the marine layer influence will keep
coastal areas cooler. On Monday, all areas will experience a
cooling trend with high temperatures generally dropping 5-10
degrees from Sunday`s numbers.

As for winds, the continued onshore flow will generate gusty
southwesterly winds across interior sections each afternoon and
evening. Based on forecast gradient trends, these winds should
gradually strengthen from day-to-day. However at this time, any
advisory-level winds are expected to remain localized in the
foothills of the Antelope Valley.

.LONG TERM (TUE-FRI)...28/207 AM.

For the extended, latest models continue to sing the same song. A
powerful upper low will move across the Pacific Northwest Tuesday
through Friday. As this occurs, our area will experience a
noticeable cool down through Thursday as thickness lower and
onshore flow increases. From the Tuesday through Thursday time
frame, high temperatures will be hovering around seasonal normals.
On Friday, there will some slight warming across the area as the
previously mentioned low moves inland.

As for rain chances, models continue to scale back on the chances
as well as the amounts. So for the Tuesday through Thursday time
frame, chance POPs look like the winner for now. Latest QPF
numbers indicate rainfall totals, if any, will be under 0.25
inches. Based on current ensembles, these reduced numbers look
good as they indicate little chance of amounts greater than 0.50
inches and 30-50% chance of amounts between 0.10 and 0.50 inches.

As for winds, the increasing onshore flow will continue to
generate gusty southwesterly winds across interior sections. There
will be a chance of advisory-level gusts across these areas
through next week. So, the winds will need to be watched closely.

&&

.AVIATION...28/1718Z.

At 1641Z at KLAX, the marine layer was 800 ft deep. The top of
the inversion was at 2800 feet with a temperature of 21 C.

High confidence in VFR TAFs for KPRB, KPMD, KWJF, KBUR, and KVNY.

Low to moderate confidence in remaining TAFs.

For KSBP & KSMX: expecting return of V/LIFR conditions. Timing of
CIG/VSBY restrictions may be off +/- 2 hours.

For TAFs south of Point Conception: expecting return of LIFR to
low-end IFR at times. Timing of CIG/VSBY restrictions may be off
+/- 3 hours.

KLAX...Low to moderate confidence in TAF. Arrival and clearing
times of CIGs may be off +/- 3 hours. Expecting IFR to low-end
IFR conds generally (003-007 with 3-6SM vsbys). No significant
east wind component expected.

KBUR...High confidence in VFR TAF.

&&

.MARINE...28/742 AM.

High confidence in winds and seas staying under Small Craft
Advisory (SCA) levels through at least Monday, except for a 30-50%
chance of low-end SCA winds beyond 20 NM from the Central Coast
Sunday evening through Monday night.

Moderate risk of dense fog with visibility under one mile will
continue in the near-term (night through morning).

There is a growing risk for widespread strong SCA or low-end Gale
Force winds over most coastal waters (including nearshore and the
Santa Barbara Channel) late Thursday through Friday of next week.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...Thompson/BL
AVIATION...Black
MARINE...DB/CC/KL
SYNOPSIS...RK/CC

weather.gov/losangeles

Experimental Graphical Hazardous Weather Outlook at:
https://www.weather.gov/erh/ghwo?wfo=lox

NWS Los Angeles (LOX) Office