113
FXUS66 KLOX 080414
AFDLOX

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard CA
814 PM PST Sat Mar 7 2026

.SYNOPSIS...07/218 PM.

Gusty Santa Ana winds will continue through Sunday, bringing a
warming and drying trend. Briefly cooler conditions are likely
early next week, with another warm and dry spell expected to start
on Wednesday and continue through at least Friday.

&&

.SHORT TERM (SAT-TUE)...07/804 PM.

***UPDATE***

Winds have lightened across the area, and thus the High Wind
Warnings across the mountains were replaced with Wind Advisories.
Additionally, Wind Advisories across the LA Basin, the San
Gabriel Valley, and Catalina Island have been allowed to expire.
Wind Advisories remain in effect through 3 pm Sunday for the
typical Santa Ana wind prone corridor of LA and Ventura Counties.
The forecast remains on track, with continued (but slightly
weaker) Santa Ana winds and very warm temperatures expected
tomorrow.

***From Previous Discussion***

A 555 dam upper low is retrograding to the SW and by late
afternoon it will be a couple hundred miles SSW of San Diego. This
system is bringing strong northeast wind flow aloft from 850 mb
to 500 mb level today. This upper level support is combining with
3 to 4 mb offshore sfc flow from both the north and east to
continue the moderate to locally strong Santa Ana wind event.
Today is the strongest and most widespread for the offshore winds.
The strongest winds have occurred across the San Gabriel, Santa
Susana, and Santa Monica mountains, as well as Malibu, with
damaging gusts from 60 to 70 mph observed today. In addition to
the typical Santa Ana wind corridor areas, have seen gusty north
to northeast winds in areas that typically do not see much
offshore winds such as the LA basin (especially west LA) and the
San Gabriel Valley (especially foothills near Highway 210
corridor), due to the strong upper level wind support and
associated mountain wave wind activity. As of 1 pm today, have
seen a number of observing stations seeing wind gusts between 35
and 50 mph across the LA Basin and San Gabriel Valley, with
locally higher gusts up to 55 mph across the hills. Some of the
High Wind Warning and Wind Advisory products are set to expire at
3 pm today, but some areas may need to be extended in time. The
potential impacts today associated with the gusty winds include
downed trees and powerlines as well as isolated power outages and
blowing dust, including the populated urban areas of the LA Basin
and San Gabriel Valley.

On Sunday, the upper level wind support will not be as strong,
and will become more easterly in direction. The surface pressure
gradients actually become more offshore and will be in the 5 to 6
mb range from both the N and E. The weaker upper level wind
support, however, will overshadow the increasing offshore surface
flow, keeping most of the offshore winds focused in the more
typical Santa Ana wind prone corridors of LA/Ventura counties, and
overall wind speeds are not expected to be as strong as today in
most areas. No high wind warning level winds anticipated on
Sunday, but will likely continue to see many wind advisories in
effect, with gusts mostly in the 35 to 50 mph range.

The offshore winds are bringing significant downslope warming and
drying to the wind prone areas today, with even more significant
warming expected tomorrow. With this type of event, coastal areas
will likely see the most significant compressional heating, with
temperatures likely climbing into the lower 80s today, and around
90 on Sunday (about 15-20 degrees warmer than normal), which could
approach record levels in a few locations. A heat advisory has
been issued for Sunday across all LA county coastal zones, the
San Fernando Valley, San Gabriel Valley, and Santa Monica
mountains. The heat is especially impactful since it is
very early in the year, and the large LA Marathon race takes
place on Sunday, with temperatures expected to approach 90
degrees by the end of the event. While Red Flag Warnings have
not been issued for this event due to the continued moist
vegetation levels, the hot, dry (humidities falling into single
digits), and windy conditions will bring the possibility of small
fire activity through the weekend.

The great basin high is expected to weaken considerably by early
Monday, while a pronounced eddy circulation develops. It does
appear that low clouds and fog may return as early as Monday
morning, and even more likely by Tuesday morning. The onshore
pressure gradients and increased marine influence will likely
bring significant cooling to the region on Monday and Tuesday,
with temperatures retuning to the 70s in most areas, and upper
60s near the beaches.

.LONG TERM (WED-SAT)...07/216 PM.

On Wednesday, an upper level ridge of high pressure will rebuild
over the area, resulting in the start of another warming and
drying trend. The heat is then expected to peak on Thursday and
Friday as offshore pressure gradients and boundary layer
temperatures peak. During this time, it will likely be more of a
northerly offshore wind, favoring such areas as southern Santa
Barbara county and the I-5 corridor. The most likely outcome for
max temperatures on Thursday and Friday will be upper 80s to
lower 90s for warmer coastal/valley areas, but some ensemble
members show the potential for localized readings into the mid
90s. These max temperatures are 15 to 20 degrees above normal. As
a result, there is the chance of heat advisory headlines needed in
the Thursday/Friday time frame.Long range models also showing no
signs of rain in the next 10 days.

&&

.AVIATION...08/0412Z.

At 03Z at KLAX, there was no marine layer or an inversion.

High confidence in CAVU TAFs through forecast period. Moderate
confidence in winds for sites across Ventura and Los Angeles
counties, with timing of wind shifts may be off by +/- 2 hours,
and gusts may be off by 10 kts during peak winds.

Light to occasionally moderate LLWS and turbulence is likely
over and near mountainous terrain across Los Angeles and Ventura
Counties.

KLAX...High confidence in CAVU conditions. Moderate confidence in
wind forecast as direction may be off by 20 degrees and gusts may
be off by +/- 10 kt during peak winds.

KBUR...High confidence in CAVU conditions. Moderate confidence in
wind forecast as direction may be off by 20 degrees and gusts may
be off by +/- 10 kt during peak winds.

&&

.MARINE...07/137 PM.

For the Outer Waters, moderate to high confidence in current
forecast. Small Craft Advisory (SCA) level N-NE winds to persist
through early Sunday afternoon across the far southern waters
(PZZ676). A lull in winds is likely thereafter followed by a
likely chance of SCA NW-N winds during Sunday evening into the
overnight hours. Similar chances these winds reach SCA level
confined during the evening hours northward to Point Sal.
For Monday through Wednesday, high confidence in a combination of
SCA level winds and seas for majority of Outer Waters, with a
20-30% chance of GALE FORCE winds across PZZ670 Monday evening
into Tuesday. Moderate chances for SCA winds through the work
week. Waves will flirt with SCA levels during this period.

For the Inner Waters north of Point Sal, moderate to high
confidence in current forecast. Conditions will remain below SCA
levels through the weekend. For Monday through Thursday, there is
a 30-40% chance of SCA level winds in the afternoon and evening
hours.

For the Inner Waters south of Point Conception, moderate to high
confidence in current forecast. SCA level NE winds are expected
from Ventura south to Santa Monica and across the San Pedro
Channel - with winds and seas remaining at or below SCA levels
elsewhere. Localized GALE Force wind gusts are likely nearshore
from Point Mugu to Malibu Sunday morning. For Monday through
Wednesday, high confidence in winds and seas remaining below SCA
levels for all of the southern Inner Waters.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...Wind Advisory remains in effect until 3 PM PST Sunday for
      zones 88-354-355-358-369>380. (See LAXNPWLOX).
     Heat Advisory remains in effect from 10 AM to 6 PM PST Sunday
      for zones 362-366>370-372-373-548. (See LAXNPWLOX).
PZ...Small Craft Advisory in effect until 3 PM PST Sunday for
      zones 650-655-676. (See LAXMWWLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...Gomberg/RS
AVIATION...Schoenfeld
MARINE...Black
SYNOPSIS...Gomberg

weather.gov/losangeles

Experimental Graphical Hazardous Weather Outlook at:
https://www.weather.gov/erh/ghwo?wfo=lox

NWS Los Angeles (LOX) Office