997
FXUS66 KLOX 021112
AFDLOX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard CA
312 AM PST Fri Jan 2 2026

.SYNOPSIS...02/252 AM.

Another storm system will drop into the region late Friday,
bringing rain and high elevation snow through Sunday. A
tightening surface pattern will likely bring gusty southerly
winds to the region, especially for the mountains and areas north
of Point Conception. Broader troughing over the West will keep a
cooler weather pattern in place into next week with cool days and
cold nights.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TDY-SUN)...02/251 AM.

Some clouds are streaming over the area this morning as a moist
air mass remains in place. A few showers cannot ruled out entirely
this morning, but a bit more stability should keep the area mostly
dry this morning. With wet soils from the rain on New Year`s Eve
and New Year`s Day, ground fog, possibly dense in some spots
could develop this morning. Radiational cooling from clear skies
should permit temperatures to cool to their dew point, forming
fog in place.

Fog should mix out by late morning, then cyclonic flow should
start to develop as the next storm system, sitting near 40N and
136N, approaches the region. Rain will spread over the area
between tonight and Saturday night. With high-resolution multi-
model ensembles and AI ensemble members of the EPS and GEFS
indicating almost all of the solutions with rain, PoPs were
nudged to categorical levels over most of the area for Saturday,
and push higher than NBM values through Sunday. Rainfall amounts
range mostly remain unchanged with 1.00 to 3.00 inches being
common across the coast and valleys with up to 3.00 to 6.00 inches
in the foothills and mountains. Rainfall rates with the system
will most likely range between 0.25 to 0.50 inch/hour, but local
rates up to 0.50 to 0.75 inch/hour are likely, especially in the
foothills and mountains. With rates approaching levels of concern
for the recent burn scars, a flash flood watch may need to be
considered later today when the timing and amounts become a little
more firm.

Snow levels will remain above 6500 feet for the entirety of the
storm, but a rain/snow mix could drop down to 6000 feet,
especially on Sunday night when the latest model solutions
suggest 700 mb temperatures dropping to -4 to -5 degrees Celsius.
Snowfall accumulations from 2 to 6 inches will likely occur at
the resort level (above 7500 feet). Local amounts up to 9 to 12
inches are possible on the highest mountain peaks.

Gusty southerly winds will begin to develop today and tonight
across the region as the surface pressure pattern starts to
tighten. High-resolution multi-model ensembles continue to
suggest the most impactful winds across the mountains and
foothills north of Point Conception. Wind advisories have been
added for the higher elevations of the Ventura and Santa Barbara
County mountains, interior San Luis Obispo County, and the Santa
Lucia mountains from this afternoon or this evening through
Saturday evening. There is a high chance that wind advisories
could be expanded into the Central Coast and the Santa Ynez and
southern portion of the Salinas Valley. EPS ensemble members
suggest wind gust means sitting just shy of advisory levels, but
high-resolution multi-model ensembles give a high-to-likely
(40-60 percent) chance of low-end wind advisory level gusts. Given
the wet soils in place, trees could be downed by the winds,
especially in the Santa Lucia range where wind gusts could be the
strongest as the frontal boundary approaches late tonight and into
Saturday morning.

.LONG TERM (MON-THU)...02/248 AM.

The forecast ensembles favor another storm system moving over the
region between Monday and Tuesday. This system looks to be colder
and drier, but there will likely be more of a convective element
involved with this storm. A difluent flow pattern developing
aloft in some of the medium-range deterministic solutions and 500
mb temperatures dropping to below -25 degrees Celsius could bring
isolated thunderstorms with brief heavy downpours, small hail,
and gusty winds into the mix. Snow levels could lower down to 5000
feet with this storm system, as well. Outside of any convective
storms, rainfall amounts should be light with most areas seeing
0.25 to 0.50 inch of rainfall.

A cold air mass will likely settle into the region for the first
full week of 2026. High temperatures across most coastal and
valleys area will be the upper 50s and 60s with frost or freeze
conditions possible in some of the valley areas. Overnight low
temperatures could dip into the 30s across the valleys and some
portions of the interior coastal sections as almost a due
northerly flow pattern develops. CMC ensembles members suggest
temperatures dipping into the 20s out in the Antelope Valley late
next week. For now, NBM values are in the forecast, but stay
tuned as this is the developing story.

&&

.AVIATION...02/1110Z.

At 1044Z at KLAX, there was a shallow surface inversion to 400
feet with a temperature of 15 degrees C.

Moderate confidence in TAFs. Localized MVFR vsbys and cigs may
develop at times at any site tonight, but VFR conds are most
likely. There is a 10% chance for brief VLIFR to IFR conds for
valley and desert sites due to the possibility of radiation fog
developing after wetting rains, best chances through 18Z.

Onset of rain may be off +/- 6 hours. Rain will start north and
work its way south and east into Saturday. Brief LIFR to IFR conds
likely during heaviest rain.

KLAX...Moderate confidence in TAF. 10% chance for MVFR conds this
morning. Onset of rain may be as early as 12Z with scattered
showers possible before main band of rain. Brief LIFR to IFR conds
likely during heaviest rain. High confidence in winds remaining
east to southeast from around 15Z through the remainder of the
period. Moderate confidence in wind speeds. Moderate confidence in
east wind component over 6 kts from 18Z through the remainder of
the period.

KBUR...Moderate confidence in TAF. VFR conds are likely, but there
is a 30% chance for periods of MVFR vsbys and cigs to develop. 10%
chance for brief LIFR to IFR vsbys due to potential radiation fog
forming through 18Z. Onset of rain may be as early as 12Z with
scattered showers possible before main band of rain.

&&

.MARINE...02/229 AM.

Small Craft Advisory (SCA) level southerly winds in the 20-30 kt
range will develop this morning, with strongest winds north and
west of Point Conception. Winds will strengthen some into the
afternoon into the evening, thus a Gale Warning has been issued
for the waters north and west of Point Conception through late
tonight. While winds will weaken overnight to SCA levels, gusty
southerly winds will continue through much of the weekend and
potentially into next week. Rough, steep, and choppy seas will be
common.

A storm system entering the region will be responsible for the
hazardous marine conditions over the weekend. Rain will begin
Friday night and work to the south and east into Saturday. A brief
break is possible late Saturday into Sunday, but rain will return
by mid-day Sunday. Right now chances for thunderstorms appear to
be low.

&&

.BEACHES...02/141 AM.

Abnormally large high tides between 7 and 7.5 feet MLLW will
occur during the morning hours, roughly between 7 am and 11 am
Friday through Sunday. The tides could combine with southerly
winds at times to bring minor tidal overflows at beaches. While
the main issues would be from pooling from water over normally dry
parking lots and walkways, building surf and strong rip currents
will increase the risk of minor coastal flooding.

A Beach Hazards Statement has been issued through Sunday
afternoon, but there is a moderate chance that a Coastal Flood
Advisory and/or a High Surf Advisory will be needed Saturday into
early Monday as another storm will likely generate moderate to
strong southerly winds and larger swell. While there is some
uncertainty in timing of the highest surf, Sunday morning will
likely be the best chance for impacts such as shallow flooding of
parking lots and roadways, some inundation of harbor walkways, and
more significant beach erosion.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...Beach Hazards Statement in effect through Sunday afternoon
      for zones 87-340-346-349-350-354-362-366. (See LAXCFWLOX).
     Wind Advisory in effect from 4 PM this afternoon to 6 PM PST
      Saturday for zone 342. (See LAXNPWLOX).
     Wind Advisory in effect from 8 PM this evening to 6 PM PST
      Saturday for zones 344-345. (See LAXNPWLOX).
     Wind Advisory in effect from 1 PM this afternoon to 6 PM PST
      Saturday for zones 353-376-377. (See LAXNPWLOX).
PZ...Small Craft Advisory in effect from 9 AM this morning to 8 PM
      PST this evening for zone 645. (See LAXMWWLOX).
     Gale Warning in effect from 8 PM this evening to 3 AM PST
      Saturday for zone 645. (See LAXMWWLOX).
     Small Craft Advisory in effect from 8 AM this morning to 8 AM
      PST Saturday for zone 650. (See LAXMWWLOX).
     Small Craft Advisory in effect until 6 PM PST this evening
      for zones 670-673. (See LAXMWWLOX).
     Gale Warning in effect from 6 PM this evening to 3 AM PST
      Saturday for zones 670-673. (See LAXMWWLOX).
     Small Craft Advisory in effect from 9 PM this evening to 8 AM
      PST Saturday for zone 676. (See LAXMWWLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...Hall
AVIATION...Lewis
MARINE...Lewis
BEACHES...Lewis
SYNOPSIS...Hall

weather.gov/losangeles

Experimental Graphical Hazardous Weather Outlook at:
https://www.weather.gov/erh/ghwo?wfo=lox

NWS Los Angeles (LOX) Office