487
FXUS66 KLOX 192109
AFDLOX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard CA
209 PM PDT Mon Oct 19 2026

.SYNOPSIS...19/239 AM.

A significant cool down is expected across southwest California
through the middle part of the week. Widespread rain is likely
Tuesday night or Wednesday through Thursday with a slight chance
of thunderstorms.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TDY-THU)...19/158 PM.

A return to onshore flow along with high pressure moving east has
cooled temperatures several degrees in all areas except the
deserts. Cooling in all areas will continue through Thursday as
the first traditional (non-tropical) storm approaches. Expecting
at least a few more degrees of cooling Tuesday, bringing all areas
into below normal territory for the first time in several days.

A pretty potent storm for October appears to be headed towards
southern California Wednesday and Thursday. The storm is currently
off the Oregon coast and most model solutions show that it will
continue to slide south along the California coast before turning
inland somewhere between central and southern California Thursday.
It is partially cutoff from the stronger jet near the US/CA
border, which does introduce some uncertainties with timing and
rainfall amounts. In addition, assuming the storm drops as far
south as many of the solutions are now indicating, there is an
increasing risk for scattered convective activity and locally
heavy rainfall, especially Wednesday night into Thursday, which
means likely a large variance in rainfall rates and totals.
Current projections indicate at least a half inch of rain for the
two days, with most areas closer to an inch and some as high as 2
inches. Can`t even rule out some locally higher amounts with
stronger cells particularly south of Pt Conception. Peak rain
rates up to .75"/hr are certainly possible and a flood watch may
be needed. Will see how the storm looks tonight and tomorrow. This
storm will likely not produce any snow below 8000 feet.

.LONG TERM (FRI-MON)...19/208 PM.

A return to dry and warmer weather is expected Friday into next
week. Most of ensemble solutions show offshore gradients returning
by Friday and peaking Saturday and Sunday, though likely about
30-40% of the strength of the previous Santa Ana event, possibly
even less than that. So some gusty northeast winds at times and
warming temperatures but mostly topping out in the 80s.

&&

.AVIATION...19/1945Z.

At 19Z at KLAX, the marine layer was 700 ft deep. The top of the
weak inversion was at 2100 ft with a temp of 26 deg C.

High confidence in VFR TAFs at KBUR, KVNY, KPMD, and KWJF.
However, there is a less than 10% chance for brief LIFR-IFR conds
at KBUR/KVNY 13Z-17Z.

Moderate confidence in IFR-MVFR conds at KSBP, KSMX, KSMO, KLAX,
and KLGB. Timing may be off +/- 3 hours with cigs +/- 200 feet of
TAF. 20% chance for no low clouds.

Low confidence in TAF for KPRB with a 40% chance for no low
clouds. Arrival may be off +/- 2 hours with with cig heights +/-
300 feet of TAF.

Good confidence in TAFs for KSBA, KOXR, and KCMA. There is a 15%
chance for brief IFR-MVFR conds 10Z-18Z.

KLAX...Moderate confidence in TAF. OVC006-010 may arrive as early
as 08Z or as late as 13Z, with a 20% chance for no low clouds.Any
east wind component is expected to be 8 kt or less thru the
period.

KBUR...High confidence in TAF. Less than 10% chance for brief
LIFR-IFR conds 13Z-17Z.

&&

.MARINE...19/133 PM.

Small Craft Advisory (SCA) northwest winds will be common across
portions of the outer waters through tonight, with localized SCA
wind gusts into the western portion of the Santa Barbara Channel.

Tuesday will feature relatively quiet conditions, then a storm
system will move into the coastal waters as early as late Tuesday
evening. This system will impact the area through Thursday,
impacting the northern waters first. While at this point it
doesn`t appear as though this system will bring significant winds,
there will likely be some enhanced southerly flow Wednesday,
which may require SCAs to be issued (including nearshore). In
addition to the enhanced southerly flow, boaters can expect rain
and a chance of thunderstorms and isolated waterspouts. With any
thunderstorm there is the threat of lightning, gusty and erratic
winds, small hail, and choppy seas. As the system leaves the
area Thursday, fairly widespread west to northwest SCA winds will
impact much of the coastal waters, creating steep, choppy wind
waves.

Then a weak to locally moderate Santa Ana Wind event is likely
this weekend, with some localized SCA level gusts possible
nearshore in favored areas nearshore adjacent to Ventura and LA
Counties.

&&

.BEACHES...19/222 AM.

The combination of a west to northwest swell and a 3-ft southerly
swell will bring elevated surf of 3 to 6 feet mainly to south and
southwest-facing beaches of Ventura and Los Angeles Counties
through Tuesday morning.

In addition to the elevated surf, dangerous rip currents can be
expected. Minor beach erosion and tidal overflows cannot be ruled
out for low-lying beach areas around the times of high tides.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...Beach Hazards Statement in effect through late Thursday night
      for zones 354-362-366. (See LAXCFWLOX).
PZ...Small Craft Advisory in effect until 3 AM PDT Tuesday for
      zones 673-676. (See LAXMWWLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...MW
AVIATION...Lewis
MARINE...Lewis
BEACHES...Sirard/Ciliberti
SYNOPSIS...RM/Ciliberti

weather.gov/losangeles

Experimental Graphical Hazardous Weather Outlook at:
https://www.weather.gov/erh/ghwo?wfo=lox

NWS Los Angeles (LOX) Office