000
FXUS66 KLOX 090909
AFDLOX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard CA
209 AM PDT Wed Sep 9 2026

.SYNOPSIS...09/206 AM.

Extreme heat and humidity will peak Today and Thursday with a
high risk for heat illness. Isolated showers and thunderstorms
are possible today as well, mainly over the mountains. Elevated
surf and coastal flooding will linger into Thursday, but decrease
in severity. Cooler and more normal conditions likely by Saturday.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TDY-FRI)...09/206 AM.

The next two days (Today and Thu) will feature very dangerous and
unusual heat. High pressure over AZ will bring 596 dam hgts to Srn
CA today and 595 dam hgts Thu. SFC high pressure to the NE will
bring 2-3 mb of offshore flow this morning both from the N and E.
This one two punch will bring 3 to 6 locally 8 degrees of warming
to areas south of Pt Conception and a whopping 10 to 15 degrees
north. This will lead to max temps of mid to upper 80s at the
beaches, 90s across the rest of the csts and 100 to 108 degree
temps for the vlys. The big kicker for this two day event will be
the humidity which will be much higher than normal due to the
remnants of Hurricane Marine and the much warmer than normal sea
sfc temps. This extra humidity will make the temps feel much worse
and will lessen the bodies cooling abilities. This humidity as
well as the strong inversion will also lead to much warmer than
normal overnight lows which will make heat recovery difficult for
people without Air Conditioning.

Extreme Heat Warnings are in effect today and Thursday. The added
humidity really make this heat event much more dangerous than
previous ones. All residents should limit your outdoor activities
during the afternoon, seek air conditioned spaces, and take lots
of breaks.

One more addition to these unusual weather days will be another
round of potential TSTMs. There will be enough lingering mid level
moisture that when combined with afternoon sunshine could be
enough to cook off some mtn TSTMs that could drift off and into
the interior vlys.

The upper high weakens on Friday and hgts fall to about 590 dam.
In addition there will be good onshore trends both to the N and E.
The humidities will also decrease. Max temps should fall 3 to 6
locally 8 degrees and the decrease in humidities will make it much
less sticky. This cooling should be enough to end the Warning
Level heat, but some heat advisories may still be necessary.

.LONG TERM (SAT-TUE)...09/206 AM.

Much more benign weather is on tap for the xtnd period. At the
upper levels fairly flat flow will set up over the state through
Monday with hgts near 588 dam. Starting Tuesday the flow tilts to
the SW-NE and Srn CA finds itself between a PACNW low and a TX
high. At the sfc there will be weak to moderate onshore flow to
the east and weak morning offshore flow turning weakly onshore in
the afternoon flow in the N/S direction.

The very warm sea sfc temps will inhibit low cloud formation but
its likely some patchy low clouds will develop south of Pt
Conception. The Central Coast will likely have better stratus
coverage in the mornings.

Look for another 3 to 6 degrees of cooling and Saturday and
another noticeable decrease in humidities. Most max temps will be
a few degrees blo normal. Most csts/vlys south of Pt Conception
will cool another 1 or 2 degrees on Sunday while a little increase
in offshore flow across the Central Coast will bring 2 to 3
degrees of warming. Not much change slated for Monday with some
additional cooling slated for Tuesday.

&&

.AVIATION...09/0908Z.

At 0822Z at KLAX, there was no marine layer nor inversion.

High confidence in non-coastal TAFs.

Low confidence in TAFs for KSMX (40 percent chc of no low clouds)
and KSBP (40 percent chc of LIFR conds 12Z-15Z).

Moderate confidence in the rest of the coastal TAFs with a 25
percent chc of IFR conds 12Z-15Z)

KLAX...Moderate confidence in TAF. There is a 25% chance of
BKN008-012 conds 12Z-15Z. No significant east wind component
expected.

KBUR...High Confidence in TAF.

&&

.MARINE...09/133 AM.

There is a very small (but non-zero) chance of thunderstorms over
the waters on today. Any thunderstorm that forms could produce
local gale force and erratic winds, brief heavy downpours, and
dangerous cloud-to- ground lightning.

Moderate confidence in winds and seas increasing to Small Craft
Advisory (SCA) levels through this morning, focused south and
west of Point Sal and continuing through the weekend. Moderate
confidence in winds expanding across all Outer Waters by this
afternoon at the earliest. Better confidence in winds increasing
to SCA levels by Thursday afternoon. Winds, and at times seas,
will likely exceed SCA levels into early next week, with a 20-30%
chance of Gale Force winds Thursday evening, and again on Sunday.

Across the nearshore waters along the Central Coast, winds will
locally reach SCA levels today, with more expansive gusty winds
Thursday into early next week, when SCAs will likely be issued.

South of Point Conception, moderate confidence in SCA winds across
the western half of the Santa Barbara Channel (locally eastern
portions) each afternoon and evening into early next week. Thus,
there is a 40-60% chance for SCAs to be issued each day, with
highest chances this weekend. Local SCA gusts will be possible
each afternoon-evening across the Santa Monica Bay and San Pedro
Channel into early next week.

The southerly swell that has impacted the coastal waters over the
last few days will continue to gradually subside today.

&&

.BEACHES...09/133 AM.

There is a very low (but non-zero) chance of thunderstorms across
the Los Angeles and Ventura Beaches today. Any thunderstorm that
forms could produce local gusty and erratic winds, brief heavy
downpours, and dangerous cloud-to- ground lightning.

Moderate to locally moderate coastal flooding will continue
through Thursday around evening high tides for south facing
shores. Even though the south swell from post tropical cyclone
Marie is subsiding, the tides remain very high. The actual
observed tides have been running about 6 inches above predictions,
with the evening tides near or exceeding 7 feet.

While impacts will not be as extreme as the past few days,
possible impacts include continued beach erosion, flooded sandy
beach areas, bike paths, and parking lots, as well as low-lying
roads. Some areas that may continue to see impacts are: the
Alamitos Peninsula in Long Beach, Avalon on Catalina Island, and
Oxnard to Malibu (including the Pacific Coast Highway near Point
Mugu).

Beach Hazards Statements (BHS) have been issued for the beaches
of Los Angeles and Ventura Counties due to the very high evening
tides Wednesday and Thursday. There will be some lingering
southerly swell today.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...Extreme Heat Warning in effect from 8 AM this morning to 8 PM
      PDT Thursday for zones 38-87-88-340>358-362-366>375-548. (See LAXNPWLOX).
     Beach Hazards Statement in effect through Thursday evening
      for zones 87-349-350-354-362-366. (See LAXCFWLOX).
     Heat Advisory in effect until 8 AM PDT this morning for zones
      362-366>373-548. (See LAXNPWLOX).
PZ...Small Craft Advisory in effect until 3 AM PDT Thursday for
      zones 673-676. (See LAXMWWLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...Rorke
AVIATION...Rorke
MARINE...Lewis/KL
BEACHES...Lewis/KL
SYNOPSIS...RK

weather.gov/losangeles

Experimental Graphical Hazardous Weather Outlook at:
https://www.weather.gov/erh/ghwo?wfo=lox

NWS Los Angeles (LOX) Office