366
FXUS66 KLOX 031653
AFDLOX

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard CA
853 AM PST Wed Dec 3 2025

Updated Short Term and Marine Discussion

.SYNOPSIS...03/119 AM.

A moderate Santa Ana wind event will bring gusty northeast winds
to portions of southern California Wednesday morning through
Thursday. Cold overnight low temperatures will occur through the
work week, coldest Wednesday night into Thursday morning in wind
protected areas. A significant warming trend will begin this
weekend and peak next Tuesday and Wednesday at 10 to 20 degrees
above normal.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TDY-FRI)...03/852 AM.

***UPDATE***

Gradients are now offshore to the east and the north and we`re
observing some near-advisory level gusts across the San Gabriels
and Santa Susanas. Although winds are offshore across coasts and
coastal valleys, they are generally in the 10-20 mph range.
Multiple higher resolution models, including the REFS ensemble and
a local WRF model, are indicating an increase in Santa Ana Wind
speeds in virtually all wind prone areas later this morning, so
we`ll keep the Wind Advisory as is. There is still a chance for
winds to remain relatively light at the coasts today.

A relative lull in Santa Ana Wind speeds will occur this afternoon
and evening. Confidence is higher in stronger, more widespread
advisory level winds from late tonight into Thursday afternoon.

Another focus will be the overnight lows, which will likely be
some of the coldest of the year, especially for areas absent of
Santa Ana Wind influences. Widespread Frost/Freeze products are on
the table for tonight, so look for the afternoon forecast for
more information.

***From Previous Discussion***

A cold upper level trough is passing through the southern portion
of the Great Basin this morning, creating thick cirrostratus over
the region but no precipitation locally. The marine layer has
jumped up over 2500 feet and pressure gradients to the east have
gone from 2-3mb offshore to over 5mb onshore. Some stratus is
trying to develop but the thick high clouds are making that
difficult to form and also see from space.

The main story for today and Thursday is the rapid shift back to
offshore and the expected development of the next round of Santa
Ana winds across portions of Ventura and LA Counties and the Santa
Lucias. Given the existence of a 2500 foot marine layer there
remains still quite a bit of uncertainty when the northeast winds
will begin and how strong they will be. High res models seem to be
a little too strong for today given the current conditions,
especially near the coast, while confidence in increasing winds is
certainly higher inland and especially in the mountains. The most
likely outcome is for most of the advisory level winds to stay up
in the mountains today while lower elevations have breezy but sub
advisory level winds by mid to late morning. However, there`s a
20% chance of much lighter winds closer to the coast today.

Going into tonight and Thursday with zero marine layer influence
and more favorable easterly flow aloft the chances for 30-50mph
winds are much higher and would likely include gusty winds out to
Catalina Island as well, especially tonight.

This is again a fairly cool Santa Ana event so high temperatures
will top out in the lower 70s, warmest at the coast and coolest
across the far interior where highs will be in the 50s. And
overnight lows in wind protected locations will be quite cold,
hence the flurry of frost and freeze products out.

By Friday morning gradients will have swung back to onshore which
will result in cooling at the coast but warming inland. Overall
highs will be near or slightly above seasonal norms.

.LONG TERM (SAT-TUE)...03/212 AM.

Strong high pressure will be building rapidly over the eastern
Pacific this weekend and especially the first half of next week.
500mb heights are expected to exceed the 95th percentile and with
increasing offshore flow, particularly Monday through Wednesday,
temperatures locally are expected to be 10-20 degrees above
normal. Local historical guidance suggests widespread highs in
the 80s across coast and valleys with about a 20% chance of lower
90s. There will be some northerly flow developing Sunday night
through Tuesday that will bring dry and gusty winds to north
exposed areas which includes most of the mountains as well as
southern Santa Barbara County.

Temperatures will start cooling next Thursday and Friday but still
well above normal.

&&

.AVIATION...03/1126Z.

Around 09Z, there was a deep moist layer up to around 3400 feet
with a inversion above up to 6500 feet.

Low to moderate confidence in the current forecast through 18Z as
ceilings could form rapidly and dissipate. Moderate confidence in
the forecast thereafter.

KLAX...There is a 60 percent chance of MVFR to VFR conditions with
ceilings at or below 6000 feet through at least 14Z, then VFR
conditions should develop through 17Z. There is a 30 percent
chance of east winds between 7 and 10 knots through 19Z. There is
a moderate chance of moderate wind shear after 06Z Thursday.

KBUR...There is a 60 percent chance of MVFR to VFR conditions with
ceilings at or below 6000 feet through at least 14Z, then VFR
conditions should develop through 16Z. There is a moderate to
high chance of moderate wind shear through 18Z, and again after
05Z Thursday.

&&

.MARINE...03/824 AM.

Moderate confidence in the current forecast. Slightly higher
confidence in the forecast for seas versus winds.

For the waters southwest through northwest of the Channel Islands
beyond 10 NM offshore of the Central Coast and outside the
southern California bight, there is a 40 to 60 percent chance of
Small Craft Advisory (SCA) conditions this morning, diminishing to
a 30 to 50 percent chance this afternoon through Thursday morning.
Winds and seas should drop below SCA levels Thursday afternoon
through Friday morning, then there is a 40 to 60 percent chance of
SCA level winds between Friday afternoon and Saturday night,
highest from near Point Conception south to San Nicolas Island.

Inside the southern California bight and for the nearshore waters
along the Central Coast out to 10 NM offshore, there is a 30 to 50
percent chance of gusty northeast to east winds through early
this afternoon, increasing to 40 to 60 percent chance overnight
tonight and into Thursday morning, highest between Rincon Point to
Santa Monica and into the San Pedro Channel. There is a 40-50
percent chance that east winds could affect east facing harbors on
Thursday morning. Winds and seas should drop below SCA levels
Thursday afternoon and remain below SCA levels through the
weekend.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...Wind Advisory remains in effect until 3 PM PST Thursday for
      zones 88-354-355-358-362-369>371-374>376-378>380. (See LAXNPWLOX).
     High Surf Advisory in effect until 3 AM PST Thursday for
      zones 340-346. (See LAXCFWLOX).
     Beach Hazards Statement in effect through Saturday morning
      for zones 349-350-362-366. (See LAXCFWLOX).
     Coastal Flood Advisory in effect until 10 AM PST this morning
      for zone 354. (See LAXCFWLOX).
     High Surf Advisory in effect until noon PST Thursday for zone
      354. (See LAXCFWLOX).
PZ...Small Craft Advisory in effect from 9 PM this evening to 2 PM
      PST Thursday for zones 655-676. (See LAXMWWLOX).
     Small Craft Advisory in effect until 10 AM PST this morning
      for zone 670. (See LAXMWWLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...MW/Lewis
AVIATION...Hall
MARINE...Hall/Schoenfeld
SYNOPSIS...MW/Lewis

weather.gov/losangeles

Experimental Graphical Hazardous Weather Outlook at:
https://www.weather.gov/erh/ghwo?wfo=lox

NWS Los Angeles (LOX) Office