404
FXUS66 KLOX 181659
AFDLOX

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard CA
959 AM PDT Thu Jun 18 2026

.SYNOPSIS...17/1149 PM.

Steady cooling through Friday with below normal temperatures
continuing through the weekend. There will ample low clouds each
morning through the weekend. Gusty onshore winds will affect
interior areas through the week. A significant warming trend
remains on track for next week with heat impacts expected.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TDY-SAT)...18/830 AM.

***UPDATE***

A deep marine layer is in place this morning as strong onshore
flow continues. The 12Z Vandenberg sounding showed the top of the
marine layer clouds was around 2300-2500 ft and several pilot
reported cloud tops were around 3200-3600 ft across LA County to
as high as 4000 ft in the Ontario area. Visible satellite this
morning showed an expansive marine cloud layer that was even still
expanding in some of the inland valleys of Ventura and LA counties
at 8 AM PDT.

The forecast for today remains on track with the low stratus
likely taking until midday/early afternoon to clear out to the
coast and temperatures will be ~3-6 degrees cooler across most
areas away from the coast.

***From Previous Discussion***

June Gloom will continue through the short term.

At the upper levels there will be weak flow today. The flow will
turn weakly cyclonic on Friday and will then become zonal on
Saturday. Hgts will remain near 588 dam through the period. Much
more importantly will be the strong onshore flow both to the N and
E. The push to the east will be near 10 mb each afternoon.

The marine layer is near 2500 ft deep. This marine layer along
with the strong onshore flow has produced enough marine layer
stratus to cover all of the csts, vlys and even the coastal
slopes. There may be enough lift esp near the foothills to produce
some morning drizzle. Clearing will be slow today and many
beaches will not clear at all esp across VTA county.

Max temps will cool again today by 3 to 6 degrees (a little less
at the already cool beaches) bringing vly temps down into the mid
70s to lower 80s or 4 to 8 degrees blo normal. Another 1 to 2
degrees of cooling is on tap for Friday and only a few of the
warmest vly locations will see highs of 80 or 81 while the rest of
the area sits in the 70s (the nearshore area will actually not
escape the 60s). Max temp will change little on Saturday as the
area remains swaddled by the cool marine air.

The strong onshore push will bring near advisory level gusts to
the western Antelope Vly and its foothills. There will also be
stronger than normal sea breezes that will last longer into the
evening.

.LONG TERM (SUN-WED)...18/232 AM.

Not too much excitement on Sunday and Monday. Zonal flow will
continue over the state. The onshore flow will weaken just a
little bit. This should decrease the morning cloud coverage a
little bit and allow for somewhat better and faster clearing. Look
for 1 or 2 degrees of warming on Sunday. 3 to 6 degrees of
warming is possible Monday as hgts rise a little and compresses
the marine layer.

The mdls have backed off a little on the warm up slated for next
Tue-Thu. At one time an upper high was fcst to move over Srn CA
now it appears that it will stay to the SE. Hgts should still warm
to an above normal 594 dam. At the sfc mdt-stg onshore flow will
persist in the W to E direction but the onshore push to the north
will weaken through the period. The higher hgts will likely smoosh
the marine layer to 1000 ft or less which will greatly reduce the
amount of clouds making it into the vlys in the mornings. This
compression will strengthen the marine inversion which will
hinder the clearing near the shore. The current forecast calls for
2 to 4 degrees of warming each day Tue and Wed with little change
on Thursday. This warming would bring vly temps into the mid 80s
and lower 90s. Since this is the day 6 and 7 forecast there is
still lower confidence and it is not out of the question the the
fcst could snap back to a warmer one.

&&

.AVIATION...18/1656Z.

At 1636Z at KLAX, the marine layer was 1700 ft deep. The top of
the inversion was near 4000 ft with a temperature of 19 Celsius.

High confidence in KPMD & KWJF.

Fair confidence in TAFs - VFR transition could be up to 2 hours
later than fcst.

KLAX...Moderate confidence in TAF. VFR conds may arrive any time
19Z-22Z. No significant east wind component expected.

KBUR...Moderate confidence in TAF. VFR conds may arrive any time
18-19Z.

&&

.MARINE...18/205 AM.

Fairly high confidence in winds and seas staying below Small Craft
Advisory (SCA) criteria through Saturday, but typically gusty
winds of 15 to 20 knots will form each afternoon and evening over
several nearshore spots.

&&

.BEACHES...17/715 PM.

A long period south to southwest swell (14 seconds and 17
seconds) will continue to affect the coastal waters through at
least Friday. A Beach Hazard Statement is in effect through
Thursday evening due to elevated surf of 3 to 6 feet on south-
facing beaches of Ventura County Beaches, Malibu Coast, and Los
Angeles County Beaches. Portions of the Southern Santa Barbara
County Beaches could see surf to 2 to 4 feet.

High tides will continue to lower and should stay below 7.0 feet
MLLW. The coastal flooding risk has lowered significantly as a
result.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...Beach Hazards Statement in effect through late tonight for
      zones 349-350-354-362-366. (See LAXCFWLOX).
PZ...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...Rorke
AVIATION...Batz/Rorke
MARINE...RK
BEACHES...Batz/Phillips
SYNOPSIS...Black

weather.gov/losangeles

Experimental Graphical Hazardous Weather Outlook at:
https://www.weather.gov/erh/ghwo?wfo=lox

NWS Los Angeles (LOX) Office